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Signs that it could unfold later this week into the weekend

Durrant Pate/Contributor

AccuWeather meteorologists are watching an area of disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean Sea, which could become the next organised tropical threat in the Atlantic.

AccuWeather, which is an American media company that provides commercial weather forecasting services worldwide, is closely monitoring a region of the Caribbean Sea for signs of tropical development that could unfold later this week into the weekend. The risk of tropical development has been increasing over the past couple of days.

The next tropical storm that forms in the Atlantic basin will be named Bonnie with the first named storm for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season being Alex.

Although the chances for development remain, there are still some roadblocks across the Caribbean Sea that could hinder a tropical system’s formation.

Doubts about formation into a storm

“The proximity to land and the wind shear across the region will end up limiting development. While low pressure may develop, it just might not be able to consolidate enough into a tropical system,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Even if tropical development does not take place, the unsettled pattern will still bring various impacts to parts of Central America.

“Regardless, residents will want to be alert for heavy rain and flash flooding, especially from the middle to end of the week from eastern Nicaragua into Honduras,” explained Douty.

While the system can bring heavy downpours to parts of Central America, the chances for a tropical system to organise prior to today are unlikely due to multiple factors such as the fact that the Saharan dust expanding across the tropical Atlantic basin will inhibit Atlantic tropical development through midweek.

The dust spreading over the Caribbean Sunday resulted in dull skies and limited visibility to locations such as Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, AcuWeather reports that the dust is expected to lessen across the southwest Caribbean for a short window of time from tomorrow to Friday.

Latest meteorological data

The latest meteorological data indicates that an enhanced swath of thunderstorm activity will likely erupt and push across the southern Caribbean around midweek. Forecasters say that an area of low pressure will form and potentially become better organised as the week progresses.

Conditions that would help nurture the development of a new tropical system, such as enhanced moisture and low wind shear, now have about a medium chance to unfold later this week. Additionally, sea-surface temperatures across the western Caribbean are currently above the minimum threshold for tropical development, which is 79 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

Ocean waters along the Nicaraguan and Honduras coastline are now hovering around 86 F, according to the Ocean Prediction Center. If tropical formation occurs, the strongest winds would likely ramp up along the coasts of eastern Nicaragua and far eastern Honduras from tomorrow into Friday.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON

Other impacts like occasionally rough seas could occur across the western Caribbean Sea. On June 5, the first tropical storm of the 2022 hurricane season, Alex brought flooding rain to western Cuba, South Florida and The Bahamas before tracking over Bermuda.

If the current area of disturbed weather develops later this week into the weekend, the steering pattern of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere would guide any organised feature along a vastly different track than Tropical Storm Alex.

The westward to northwestward steering currents across the western Caribbean would likely direct any feature that develops toward Central America, southern Mexico or even the Texas Gulf Coast.