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A new world order is reshaping investing

A new world order is reshaping investing

Capital no longer flows freely in search of the highest return. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by geopolitics, supply-chain security, trade disputes, sanctions, and national interest. Volatility is no longer a temporary disruption it is a permanent feature of the global financial system. Wars, elections, climate shocks, and policy shifts now transmit almost instantly into markets.

For Jamaican investors, this new reality is not theoretical. It shows up in exchange-rate pressure, imported inflation, rising interest costs, and uneven access to investment opportunities. In this environment, successful investing cannot rely solely on individual portfolio choices. It requires domestic capital markets that are deep enough, diverse enough, and resilient enough to operate when the global system becomes unstable.

Offshore exposure is good but access is uneven

From a portfolio standpoint, offshore exposure remains a sound strategy. Diversifying across currencies and geographies protects purchasing power and reduces concentration risk, especially in a small, open economy like Jamaica.

But access to offshore markets is uneven.

High minimum investment thresholds, foreign-exchange friction, compliance requirements, and information gaps mean that meaningful global exposure is largely reserved for higher-net-worth investors. For most retail investors, domestic exposure is not always a deliberate choice; it is often a constraint. At the same time, the Jamaican dollar is projected to weaken further, reflecting long-term structural pressures despite recent macroeconomic stability. This combination of currency risk and limited offshore access leaves many investors exposed, not by choice but by circumstance. That reality strengthens the case for deeper local capital markets that can deliver diversification, income, and resilience at home.

Why capital markets matter more in a fractured global economy

In periods of geopolitical stress, countries with deep capital markets absorb shocks better. They retain domestic savings, provide liquidity during volatility, and reduce dependence on foreign capital flows. Shallow markets do the opposite. External shocks transmit quickly through currency pressure, capital flight, and rising funding costs. When global investors retreat, financing dries up precisely when it is most needed.

For Jamaica, capital-market depth is no longer a secondary development goal. It is a form of economic resilience a system of financial self-insurance in a world where global capital is increasingly cautious, strategic, and nationally aligned.

Progress worth acknowledging

Jamaica has made real and measurable progress.

The Jamaica Stock Exchange closed 2025 with a combined market valuation of approximately J$1.9 trillion, reflecting resilience across the Main Market, Junior Market, and US-dollar-denominated segments despite global volatility. Collective investment schemes have expanded steadily, with assets under management rising more than 11 per cent year-on-year to over J$410 billion by late 2025. Pension-fund assets now exceed J$760 billion, creating one of the largest pools of long-term domestic capital in the economy.

These developments matter. They signal growing participation, improving confidence, and a financial base strong enough to support the next phase of market deepening. The foundation has been laid. The question now is how deliberately policy builds on it.

Where policy must now accelerate

Stability alone does not create opportunity. Depth does.

Expanding the corporate bond market is critical. While the legal and institutional infrastructure exists, issuance remains limited and concentrated. Streamlining approval timelines, encouraging mid-sized corporates to access public debt markets, and promoting longer-dated instruments would reduce overreliance on bank lending and government securities. At the same time, it would give retail investors access to predictable income streams beyond traditional fixed deposits.

Formalising frameworks for private credit and alternative assets is equally important. Private credit is already financing real economic activity across sectors, yet participation remains narrow due to inconsistent disclosure standards and limited retail-friendly structures. Clear regulatory guidance and well-designed collective investment vehicles can broaden access while maintaining strong investor protection.

Broadening Access to Private Capital Without Exposing Jamaicans to Equity Risk

Jamaica stands at a pivotal moment in the evolution of its financial system. As global markets shift and private credit becomes an increasingly important source of business financing, the country has a unique opportunity to open this asset class to everyday Jamaicans in a manner that is safe, structured, and free from equity‑type volatility. By empowering retail savers to participate in secured, income‑producing private‑credit instruments rather than speculative equities, Jamaica can democratize wealth, strengthen domestic capital formation, and deepen the resilience of the financial ecosystem.

The Jamaica Stock Exchange’s Private Market already provides a regulated foundation for privately issued securities, but this framework remains largely focused on institutional or sophisticated investors. Enhancing this platform with a standardised programme for small‑denomination private‑credit notes would transform its impact. By using clear disclosure rules, collateral requirements, risk classifications, and controlled secondary trading, the financial system can offer households access to secured debt instruments that behave more like fixed‑income products than high‑volatility equities. This would expand the range of safe, income‑generating assets available to ordinary investors while injecting new life, liquidity, and diversity into the private‑market landscape.

Complementing this foundation, Jamaica can authorise retail‑eligible private‑credit investment funds designed specifically to avoid equity‑type exposures. These funds would hold diversified portfolios of secured loans, receivables, or asset‑backed financing, managed by professionals within a regulated structure. The goal is to give small investors a simple, reliable way to earn consistent returns from real‑economy lending returns that are not tied to the swings of stock markets. With conservative leverage, audited reporting, and strong oversight, such funds would deepen the country’s pool of investment vehicles and channel household savings into productive business activity.

At the structural level, interval funds and tender‑offer funds offer Jamaica an internationally tested framework for managing liquidity in private‑credit portfolios. Because private loans are inherently less liquid than publicly traded securities, these vehicles are built around periodic redemption windows instead of daily liquidity. This protects both investors and the broader system, ensuring that income‑generating private credit can be safely offered to retail participants without creating liquidity mismatches. For Jamaica, adopting this model would add a new class of well‑structured fixed‑income‑style products that broaden the investable universe for savers without nudging them toward the risk profile of equities.

Jamaica’s established private‑credit managers provide another powerful lever for market expansion. These institutions already possess the underwriting discipline, governance frameworks, and operational infrastructure needed to originate and manage secured credit. By encouraging them to introduce fractionalized secured notes or short‑duration private‑credit instruments for the retail market, Jamaica can extend institutional‑grade investment quality to ordinary households. These products would give savers access to streams of interest income backed by collateral and cash‑flowing businesses exactly the sort of stable, predictable returns that help families build wealth without taking on ownership‑based risk.

The country’s rapid digital transformation adds yet another pathway for innovation. By establishing a regulated digital marketplace for private credit, Jamaica can expand access to diversified SME loan portfolios in small, affordable increments. With transparent reporting, standardized underwriting, and supervised servicing, digital platforms can safely bring secured private credit to a wider audience including rural populations and younger savers who have traditionally been excluded from wealth‑building opportunities. This not only strengthens financial inclusion but also channels capital directly into the small and medium enterprises that fuel economic growth.

Critical to all of this is the modernisation of investor suitability rules. A tiered investor classification system, based on competence rather than wealth alone, would allow more Jamaicans to gradually access increasingly sophisticated private‑credit products as their knowledge and financial literacy grow. This ensures that access is earned through understanding not reserved for the wealthy while keeping protections in place for those who need them. Such an approach redistributes opportunity more fairly across the population and strengthens the long‑term stability of the financial system.

Finally, development institutions can accelerate this transition by supporting the creation of retail‑feeder structures and credit‑enhanced SME vehicles. By absorbing a small first‑loss position or providing risk‑sharing mechanisms, these institutions can lower barriers for retail participation and crowd in private managers to build products tailored to average savers. Over time, as performance data accumulates and markets mature, these supports can taper off, leaving behind a sustainable ecosystem where private‑credit participation is commonplace, safe, and broadly beneficial.

Taken together, these reforms create a clear path for Jamaica to deepen its capital markets while protecting retail investors from equity‑type risk. They expand the menu of secure, income‑driven assets available to households, strengthen the allocation of domestic savings into productive sectors, and broaden participation in the nation’s financial growth. Most importantly, they democratize wealth in a way that aligns with Jamaica’s development priorities: inclusive, stable, and anchored in real economic activity rather than speculative market movements.

By embracing a future where private‑credit investing is accessible, transparent, and safely structured, Jamaica can transform its financial landscape into one where opportunity is not concentrated at the top, but shared across the society.

Fixing distortions and unlocking institutional capital

Tax policy continues to shape capital allocation, often unintentionally.

Differences in withholding-tax treatment across instruments distort investment decisions and discourage market-based financing. Moving toward tax neutrality would allow capital to flow to its most productive use rather than its most tax-efficient structure.

At the same time, pension funds and insurance companies now holding hundreds of billions in long-term capital must be empowered to play a more active role. A more risk-based regulatory interpretation, rather than overly conservative constraints, would allow these institutions to act as anchor investors, liquidity providers, and stabilising forces during periods of market stress.

Creating local pathways to global diversification

If retail investors face barriers to offshore markets, domestic capital markets must provide credible alternatives.

US-dollar-denominated instruments, regionally diversified funds listed on the JSE, and vehicles linked to infrastructure, energy, healthcare, logistics, and real assets can deliver diversification, income, and inflation protection without forcing capital offshore. These instruments allow Jamaican investors to hedge currency risk and access long-term growth within a familiar regulatory environment.

Well-designed local products can replicate many of the benefits of offshore exposure while strengthening the domestic financial system rather than draining it.

The geopolitical risk of shallow markets

As global capital becomes more strategic and nationally oriented, shallow markets grow more vulnerable. Capital exits faster during periods of stress, funding costs rise, and reliance on foreign inflows intensifies.

Deep domestic markets change that equation. They ensure that Jamaican savings finance Jamaican growth even when global conditions deteriorate. In an uncertain world, financial depth is not just an economic advantage; it is a strategic asset.

Conclusion: Capital markets as national infrastructure

Offshore exposure remains a good investment, but it cannot be the only solution. In a fractured global economy, Jamaica must ensure that retail investors have access to diversified, transparent, and resilient investment options at home. Deepening the capital markets is not about financial sophistication for its own sake. It is about fairness, resilience, and economic sovereignty. In this new world order, strong capital markets are not a luxury.

They are national infrastructure.

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Ambraee Houslin is a Private Equity Strategist with a strong background in economics and statistics. He has extensive experience in investment banking, corporate finance, and investment research across Jamaica and the Caribbean region. His core expertise includes mergers and acquisitions, capital structuring, and executing complex transactions that drive growth and value creation. Ambraee has led and supported deals spanning strategic acquisitions, private credit facilities, and post-transaction integration strategies for high-impact sectors.