Climate
NORAM | Apr 7, 2022

Brace yourselves: Seventh-consecutive above-average hurricane season predicted for 2022

Gavin Riley

Gavin Riley / Our Today

administrator
Reading Time: 3 minutes
Hurricane Sam seems poised to re-strengthen in the coming hours as several Caribbean islands—Barbados, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, St Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe—come into range in this stunning satellite image at 5:00 pm AST on Monday, September 27, 2021. (Photo: National Hurricane Center)

Slowly but surely, the effects of climate change are being increasingly felt, as forecasts for the upcoming 2022 Hurricane Season again paint the expectation for another above-average cycle for the tropical Atlantic.

It is the seventh-straight year that a hyperactive season is being predicted by meteorologists.

The Colorado State University (CSU), publishing its 39th Atlantic basin seasonal forecast today (April 7), explained that current climatic conditions remain favourable to a hyperactive spell.

“Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal,” the CSU said in its summary.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” forecasters added.

This time around, however, using the 1991-2020 season as an average for activity, CSU meteorologists forecasted 19 named storms for the 2022 Hurricane Season. The figure is two storms higher than the preliminary forecast published in April 2021.

The forecast projects that nine of these systems will develop into hurricanes, and four into major hurricanes.

The probability of a major hurricane (of category strength three or higher) tracking into the Caribbean is now 60 per cent—18 percentage points higher than 100 years ago, when the chance was at 42 per cent.

Four systems caused extensive damage to sections of the Caribbean last year, namely Hurricane Elsa, Tropical Storm Fred, Hurricane Grace and Hurricane Ida.

Satellite loop of Hurricane Grace in the Caribbean as at 11:00 am EDT on Wednesday, August 18, 2021. (Content courtesy of NHC/NOAA)

The United States also stays in the crosshairs, with a 71 per cent chance of a storm hitting anywhere on the US coastline. The US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 47 per cent likely to be hit, while the Gulf Coast has a 46 per cent probability.

All forecasts for the Caribbean and the US are two percentage points higher than last year.

In 2021, the CSU’s forecast called for an above-average season, with 17 named storms. The forecast was updated on July 8 to 20 named storms.

The forecast was much closer to its predictions as, by the time the 2021 season fizzled out in November, 21 storms had been named with seven developing into hurricanes and four further intensifying into major hurricanes.

The 2021 Hurricane Season was the third-most active and the third costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record.

RELATED | 2021: Another above-average hurricane season expected

Comments

What To Read Next