Brokerages lift S&P 500 target on hopes for soft landing, rate cuts
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(Reuters)
Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
| S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/JPY USD/CNY | ||
| 7.20 | Goldman Sachs | 5,600 | 4.25% | 1.08 | 150 | |
| 7.5 | Morgan Stanley | 5,400(for June 2025) | 1 | 140 | ||
| 7.25 | US Global Wealth Management* | 5200 | 3.85% | 1.09 | 148 | |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 5,100-5,300 | 4.25-4.75% | 1.06-1.10 | 156-160 | ||
| 7.2 | Barclays | 5,300 | 4.25% | 1.09 | 145 | |
| 7.25 | J.P. Morgan | 4,200 | 3.75% | 1.13 | 146 | |
| 7.45 | BofA Global Research | 5,400 | 4.25% | 1.12 | 158 | |
| Deutsche Bank | 5,500 | 4.60% | 1.07 | 135 | ||
| 7.25 | Citigroup | 5,600 | 4.20% | 1.02 | 135 | |
| 7.10 | HSBC | 5,400 | 3.00% | 1.05 | 145 | |
| Oppenheimer | 5,900 | |||||
| 7.15 | UBS Global Research* | 5,600 | 4.0% | 1.05 | 160 | |
| Evercore ISI | 6,000 | |||||
| RBC | 5,700 |
*UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
U.S. Inflation
U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June amid cheaper gasoline and moderating rents, firmly putting disinflation back on track and drawing the Federal Reserve another step closer to cutting interest rates in September.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
| Headline CPI | Core PCE | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.10% | 2.70% |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.0% | 2.60% |
| Barclays | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.10% | |
| Citigroup | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| HSBC | 3.4% |
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
| GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management* | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 7.0% |
| Barclays | 2.6% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 6.2% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.5% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.2% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 7.0% |
| Citigroup | 1.9% | 1.0% | 4.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 6.3% |
| HSBC | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.3% |
| UBS Global Research* | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
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