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USA | Nov 22, 2024

Brokerages see ‘uncertain’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

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FILE PHOTO: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 14, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

(Reuters)

Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.

World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.

Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds

BrokerageS&P 500 targetU.S. 10-year yield targetEUR/USD USD/JPYUSD/CNY
UBS Global Research64003.80%1.04157.07.60
Goldman Sachs65004.25%1.03 (next 12-months159 (next 12-months7.50 (next 12-months
UBS Global Wealth Management66004.00% 1.12145 7.50
Wells Fargo Investment Institute6500-67004.50%-5.00%0.98-1.02158-162
Societe Generale4.50% 1.12 1427.20
Nomura135 6.93
Morgan Stanley65004.10% (Q3’25)
J.P.Morgan4.10% (Q3’25)
Wells Fargo4.00%
BMO Capital Markets6700

U.S. Inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs2.5% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan2.4% 2.3%
Morgan Stanley2.3% 2.5% (4Q/4Q)
Barclays2.3% 2.5%
Wells Fargo2.6% 2.5%
Societe Generale2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Bank2.8% (Q4/Q4)2.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo Investment Institute3.3%
UBS Global Wealth Management2.6%

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

BROKERAGEGLOBALU.S. CHINAEURO AREAUKINDIA
UBS Global Research2.9%1.9% 4.0%0.9%1.5% 6.3% (for FY 26)
Goldman Sachs2.7%2.5% 4.5%0.8%1.3%6.3%
Barclays3.0%2.1%4% 0.7%1.2%7.2%
Morgan Stanley3.0%2.1% 4.0% 1.0%1.4%6.5% (for FY25/FY26)
J.P.Morgan 2.4%2.2% 3.9%0.8%1.0%6.0%
UBS Global Wealth Management2.9%1.9%4.0%0.9%1.5% 6.3%
Wells Fargo2.5% 2.0% 4.0%1.0%1.6%5.9%
Societe Generale 2.2%4.7%1.0%1.6%
Citigroup1.1% 1.0%
Nomura4.0% 6.9%
Deutsche Bank 2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo Investment Institute2.5%

  • UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
  • Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)
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Donald Trump forecasts Inflation

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