Jamaica’s agriculture sector is grappling with shifting weather patterns as the country transitions from a La Niña phase toward more neutral conditions, with the possibility of entering an El Niño phase later this year.

Senior Plant Health and Food Safety Officer at the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), Francine Webb, tells JIS News that recent weather conditions have deviated significantly from expectations.

“What we have been experiencing over the December, January, February period [which is] our typical dry season, is a little unusual. It was a little wetter than what we would normally see,” she says.

Webb adds that forecasts point to a different weather pattern for the current season.

“The outlook coming up to…April, May, June, from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is indicating that it is not going to be as wet as we would anticipate this second rainy period to be,” she notes.

Webb attributes this to “a shift from the La Niña phenomenon to a more neutral El Niño phase,” along with “warmer than usual sea surface temperatures around the Caribbean and the North Atlantic”.

She provides context on how global climate patterns influence local conditions, emphasising the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

“The ENSO is a term that is used for the overall climate cycle…an umbrella term for the shifting in the patterns,” she explains.

This shift could have implications for the upcoming 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1.

“On that scale, you would have the neutral phase in the middle. El Niño is the warmer than average waters, leading to conditions that are drier, higher temperatures and would result in it being a less intense hurricane season. The La Niña [phenomenon] is cooler than average water…meaning wetter conditions and more frequent and intense hurricanes,” Webb further explains.

Jamaica is now emerging from a La Niña period that has shaped recent weather patterns.

“We can attest to a number of different cold fronts. So the temperatures were cooler and we had far more rain than we would normally have,” Webb notes.

The transition into an ENSO phase is expected to bring more typical seasonal conditions, though variability remains a significant factor.

“In this neutral phase…the likelihood of having predictable extremes is less. It is likely that we will phase now into an El Niño as we go into the July, August, September period. That also has bearing on the predictions for the hurricane season…to not be as intense as we have experienced in previous times,” Webb tells JIS News

The evolving ENSO conditions and their influence on rainfall, temperature, and storm activity remain key considerations for Jamaica’s agricultural sector, as farmers and stakeholders prepare for a potentially less intense, yet still uncertain, climatic period ahead.

Webb cautions farmers against complacency despite the projected decrease in activity for the hurricane season, emphasising, “…we just need one major one to really cause a problem”.