Things are heating up in the Atlantic Basin, as meteorologists at the Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) are again tracking the development of three systems in the open ocean today (August 31).

The NHC, in its 8:00 Eastern Standard Time (EST) tropical weather outlook, indicated that after a nearly two-month lull, all three systems have a high likelihood of further intensification over the next five days.

The first and closest disturbance, an area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic, is located several hundred kilometres east of the Leeward Islands. Little has changed development-wise, according to the NHC, and though environmental conditions only appear to be “marginally conducive”, additional gradual strengthening of this system is expected within the next couple of days.

The largely disorganised low-pressure system, with respective “medium” and “high” formation chances at 60 per cent and 80 per cent over the next two-to-five days, is anticipated to develop into a tropical depression as it slowly crawls west-northwest, along the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.

In the meantime, the tropical cyclone alert activated by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services remains in effect, the agency advised this morning.

The second disturbance, “a broad area of low-pressure”, has become better organised between the western coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, according to NHC sleuths.

A short-lived tropical depression may be on the cards, as the US-based hurricane watchdog indicated some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days.

“By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavourable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday,”

Its formation chances are “medium” at 40 per cent and 50 per cent respectively over the next two-to-five days.

Finally, a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic has ‘birthed’ a low-pressure area about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to development, the NHC noted, adding that “a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward”.

Development chances for this system were placed at a “medium” 60 per cent within the next two days and a “high” 70 per cent over the next five days.

The next three available names for the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season are Danielle, Earl and Fiona.

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