Despite the ballooning coronavirus (COVID-19) caseload, Jamaica is yet to reach the peak of its current infection curve—signalling that more hardship, as well as life-and-death decisions, lie in wait for the island.

Chief Medical Officer (CMO) in the Ministry of Health and Wellness, Dr Jacquiline Bisasor-McKenzie, presenting the COVID-19 data over the last two weeks on Tuesday (March 23), warns that before the crisis improves things will get much worse.

“This is the [COVID-19] distribution across the parishes and you can see right across the country that we are seeing quite a bit of active cases. Right now, we are recording 6,230 active cases over the last 14 days,” she said.

“All parishes and most communities [within them] are affected with active cases…our numbers continue to increase and this is the trend right now. We are not yet identifying a peak, so we are still trending upwards,” Bisasor-McKenzie added.

The CMO’s statement is also reflected in the latest coronavirus statistics done by Reuters, which indicate that Jamaica is currently at 95 per cent of its peak.

“COVID-19 infections are increasing in Jamaica, with 655 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 95 per cent of the peak — the highest daily average reported on March 19,” Reuters reported.

Over the last two weeks, beginning on March 7, Jamaica reached another critical turning point, confirming 878 new cases, which shattered the daily record for the third time in as many days.

• See related article: Worsening COVID outbreak wallops Jamaica, 878 new cases confirmed

Since then, the island’s cumulative cases, which stood at a worrying 26,904, has skyrocketed to 35,896 as at Sunday, March 21.

The island, which confirmed 558 new cases on Sunday, had a public testing positivity rate of 42.5 per cent—meaning that more than four out of every 10 persons tested at a public health facility was confirmed infected with the coronavirus—data that the ministry finds most concerning.

“Our positivity rate over the last couple of weeks has continued to increase. Last week, we had an overall positivity rate of 38.9 per cent and so far, for this week, we are in the 40s [percentile],” the CMO asserted.

The exponential rate at which Jamaicans are contracting COVID-19, with help from the more-infectious Kent variant from the United Kingdom, also places strain on the public health sector, which has now exceeded its 600-bed capacity islandwide.

Hospital wards dedicated to the treatment of COVID-19, which have seen a 2,627 per cent jump in their capacity – up from 22 beds in March 2020 to 600 to date – are all filled, Bisasor-McKenzie noted.

“As the positivity rate increased, we would have seen a rise in hospitalisations and an increase in the number of deaths. Our bed capacity, that was increased, has been surpassed over time,” Bisasor-McKenzie said.

The CMO further argued that amidst Jamaica’s post-Emancipendence spike in September, as the government increased hospitals’ capacity to manage the pandemic, the health sector was never overwhelmed, until now.

“Even when our numbers went up in September-October, our number of beds were always more. However, you will notice now that as of February, the number of cases that we have hospitalised has gone above the beds that we have committed to COVID,” she explained.

The concern was also echoed by Prime Minister Andrew Holness, lamenting Jamaica’s current dilemma in last Friday’s contribution to the 2020-21 Budget Debate.

“Hospitalisation now exceeds the beds available by as much as 15 per cent in some instances. This places great stress on our already overburdened doctors and nurses. It potentially could impact the mortality rate. More persons could die!” Holness exclaimed.

Jamaica confirmed 335 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the island cumulative total at 36,231.

The country is currently managing a whopping 18,947 active cases, while a record 433 patients are hospitalised.