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It is shaping up to be a closer contested general election the next time the JLP and PNP do battle.

The JLP is seeking a third consecutive term under its populist leader Andrew Holness.

The PNP has done away with its internecine infighting and rallied around Mark Golding who was elected leader of the party in 2020.

In the first couple of years of his tenure, the prevailing thinking was that Andrew Holness and the JLP would blow Golding away and send the PNP into opposition for a generation, rather like what it had to endure at the end of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first century.

Golding has made the PNP a force again and it will not suffer the drubbing it took in 2020 next time out.

The local elections earlier this year would have given the PNP heart and put the JLP on alert. Both parties have work to do.

Don Anderson is recognised as the doyen of political pollsters in Jamaica and his latest findings from the field are instructive. 

The question was posed, what of the favourability of the two party leaders? According to the Don Anderson poll, Prime Minister Andrew Holness now has an unfavourable (poor) opinion rating of 39.9 per cent whereas Mark Golding’s stands at 25.8 per cent.

It has yet to be determined if the Integrity Commission’s Report on the Prime Minister’s financial affairs has played a factor here. 

What is clear is that there may be a certain fatigue with the JLP after nearly nine years in power and people may be looking for a different approach, a new hope.

The Holness administration has presided over macro-economic stability, bringing down the debt, curbing inflation, significantly reducing the unemployment rate, ushered in greater parity in wages and salaries between the public and private sectors, and pressed ahead with infrastructure programmes.

It has always been baffling why the JLP never toots its own horn about how it managed the COVID crisis and brought the country back from a simultaneous health, financial, economic and social the likes has never been seen. It was a true test of its competence and it passed it, yet it’s like COVID never happened and life goes on. The true test of any government is how it handles a crisis, and what strategies can it employ.

The common refrain from many young people is that there is no growth and that they see no progress in their lives—nothing is going on.

The PNP can jump on this malaise and tell young voters their lives are passing them by and they still have nothing to show for it. To younger voters, Mark Golding and the PNP remain largely unknown, a political force that ruled during their parents’ time. Perhaps they will make life better in Jamaica.

There are those who peg the JLP to rampant corruption and illicit enrichment. That causes resentment and envy and the party would do well to debunk that. It can’t afford a cascade of scandals as it goes into a general election.

Governance, integrity and transparency now have a potency that Jamaican political parties who fail to pay attention to, do so at their peril.

Mark Golding has not to date been embroiled in anything shady. His image is that of the upstanding family man, who does the right thing and is committed to serving Jamaica. Accusatory fingers have not been pointed at him. He is deemed a safe pair of hands and that gives him political capital going into a general election. He doesn’t have to be a retail political athlete, he doesn’t have to be Obama on the stump—he simply has to be authentic and trustworthy.

It would be a mistake to have him be something that he clearly is not. He brought the PNP this far, perhaps he can get the party over the line and back into Jamaica House.

“Everyone knows that Don Anderson favours the PNP, that’s why the Gleaner use him. Andrew Holness is still the most popular politician in Jamaica, don’t be fooled. Andrew Holness has been the most successful Prime Minister Jamaica has ever had and even disgruntled Jamaicans know that deep down. When it comes time to vote, they will do the right thing. Jamaica will mash up if it goes back to Michael Manley’s ideas, it would be a regressive step.

“The PNP has gained a little confidence but does not have the resources to win the next general election. That’s why Holness needs to call it in February—don’t give the ”Comrades” time to get their machinery in place. Daryl Vaz is a dynamic treasurer, he will raise a war chest that will blow away the PNP—watch,” said JLP supporter Trevor Sinclair of Westmoreland.

The consensus is, that the PNP has managed to retain its base which is formidable while bringing millennials and Gen Z support under its tent. The young voters could be the deciding factor in this general election. Can Andrew Holness still resonate with them? Will they still buy his brand? Can he persuade them to stay with his vision for the country and not lose faith at this time?

The JLP cannot take it for granted that it will attain the holy grail of three consecutive terms in office. It will have to work to make that a reality. It cannot afford to underestimate a re-invigorated PNP.

More recently the JLP has not done a good job with its communication and messaging apparatus. It has not burnished its achievements into the collective consciousness. It doesn’t want to leave that too late into the day.

On the other hand, the PNP cannot take the approach that it can sit back and rely on the JLP to lose this election battle. It has to take this victory from the hands of the JLP with strident campaigns not yet seen in Jamaica. It will have to re-imagine and rebrand the PNP before the people of Jamaica. It must give Jamaicans a reason to go to the polling stations in droves. A passive approach will not do.

You want it? You will have to knock the JLP down on the canvas. You can’t hope for a points decision. 

Ominously for the JLP is that while Golding’s favourability rating is up, Holness’ performance rating is down. It appears that Holness is the JLP’s trump card and there doesn’t seem to be other popular JLP  government members who can help shoulder the load. Holness is the Brian Lara of the JLP team but should he not put together a massive run score, where is Desmond Haynes, Gordon Greeinidge, Viv Richards, Richie Richardson who can come in and build an innings and take it to the bowlers? 

Senator Abka Fitz-Henley has said the PNP cannot draw comfort from this latest Don Anderson poll because the PNP are using polls to mislead the people of Jamaica. He went on to add that the PNP and its surrogates are using a fake poll strategy. “Expect them to come with polls that say PNP is ahead. They said that in 2016, the JLP won that election. They said it again in 2007, the JLP won that election and again in 2020 they said, ‘PNP surge’ and the JLP won 49 seats in that general election.“