Sections of the Eastern Caribbean are on heightened alert as meteorologists at the Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) continue to monitor a tropical wave in the far Atlantic.

The NHC, in its 8:00 am Eastern Standard Time (EST) bulletin today (June 24), has upgraded the system’s favourability to further intensify at 60 per cent over the next five days.

The tropical disturbance, which emerged off the coast of West Africa earlier this week, started with an initial probability of development over the next five days at 20 per cent.

“A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 [miles per hour] over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands,” the NHC advised.

If predictions stay true, the storm’s projected path would take it near or directly over the south-southeastern Caribbean, including Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and Grenada.

A lingering plume of Saharan dust is also present in the Eastern Caribbean, though its effects continue to wane heading into the weekend.

The 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane season, forecast to be the seventh consecutive above-average year, has seen one named system this far. Tropical Storm Alex formed on June 6 after causing serious flooding in Cuba and South Florida as Potential Cyclone One.

Alex started out as an offshoot of Hurricane Agatha, which slammed the eastern Pacific coast of Mexico, however, prior to the remnant system developing, the Caribbean marked the zero ‘pre-season’ storm activity for the first time in eight years.

The meteorological services of Barbados and Trinidad have indicated that they are also actively watching the progression of the tropical wave and urged citizens to stay tuned to further updates over the coming days.

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