Region facing very complex 2022 filled with uncertainty

The Caribbean, except Guyana, is forecast to grow 6.1 per cent in 2022, according to new projections released by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena put Guyana’s forecast growth at 18 per cent, saying in 2021, the region experienced “higher-than-expected growth”, averaging 6.2 per cent due to the low baseline established in 2020, to greater mobility and to a favourable external context.”

ECLAC’s Bárcena said the expected slowdown in the region in 2022, combined with the problems of low investment and productivity, poverty and inequality, calls for growth and employment creation to be central elements of public policy making while at the same time addressing inflationary pressures.

According to the Preliminary Overview, the Dominican Republic is forecast to see growth at 10.4% while St Lucia will see 6.3 per cent growth and Jamaica, four per cent.

Dominica’s growth is put at 3.2 per cent while Belize is forecast for growth of 2.7 per cent. The Bahamas is forecast for 2.3 per cent; Antigua & Barbuda, 1.8 per cent and Barbados, 1.5 per cent. All other countries are set to record a drop in growth.

ECLAC in its 2020 growth projection report acknowledged that the region is facing a very complex 2022 filled with uncertainty regarding the pandemic’s ongoing evolution, a sharp deceleration in growth, continued low investment and productivity and a slow recovery in employment, the persistence of the social effects prompted by the crisis, reduced fiscal space, increased inflationary pressures and financial imbalances.

However, according to the Preliminary Overview 2021, estimates point to advanced economies growing by 4.2 per cent in 2022, “being the only ones to resume the growth trajectory foreseen before the pandemic over the course of this year.