As global economic tensions mount, Denis Gray, chief risk officer at the VM Group, is urging domestic businesses to stay alert and take decisive action in response to the United States’ imposition of a 10 per cent tariff on Jamaican exports.

According to Gray, key industries such as manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and distribution are likely to be most affected by the new tariff.

“That’s significant,” he noted, “given that approximately 60 per cent of Jamaica’s exports are sent to the US. This level of dependence presents a real concentration risk.”

Gray highlighted the broader implications of escalating trade tensions, including potential declines in remittances and tourist arrivals, which are both vital sources of foreign exchange for Jamaica. “If major source markets like the US experience economic slowdowns, that ripple effect could be felt across several sectors of our economy,” he explained.

Advice for Jamaican businesses

In response, Gray advised Jamaican exporters to diversify both their export markets and product offerings, exploring opportunities in the wider Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Europe, Canada, and Asia.

He also emphasised the importance of maximising existing trade agreements, such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative, which allows duty-free access for certain goods to the US market.

“Efficiency is also key,” he said. “Investing in technology, streamlining operations, and renegotiating supplier contracts can help local businesses remain competitive despite new cost pressures.”

Opportunities in uncertainty

Despite the challenges, Gray sees strategic opportunities emerging.

“If US economic policies lead to stronger domestic incomes, we could see an uptick in American tourists—who make up 70 per cent of our arrivals. That could be a win for our tourism sector. The converse would hold if a US or global recession were to happen.”

At the same time, Gray also warns of potential pressure on remittance inflows if US immigration policies tighten, given that 67 per cent of Jamaica’s remittances originate from the United States.

He also encouraged Jamaica to use this moment to broaden its global partnerships and deepen investments in sectors like business process outsourcing, digital services, and other knowledge-based industries.

“This is a pivotal time for Jamaica to rethink its economic strategy, strengthen its resilience, and position itself to thrive in an increasingly complex global environment,” Gray concluded.