Climate
NORAM | Apr 24, 2023

First below-normal hurricane season predicted in eight years

/ Our Today

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A street sign lies in flood waters after Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwestern Florida, in Punta Gorda, Florida, U.S., September 29, 2022. (Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton)

In a first in nearly nearly a decade, preliminary forecasts for the 2023 Hurricane Season are tentatively favourable for the tropical Atlantic.

The Colorado State University (CSU), publishing its 40th Atlantic basin seasonal forecast in mid-April, explained that current climatic conditions have been factored in its “slightly below-normal” outlook.

“Current neutral ENSO conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop,” the CSU concluded.

Satellite-generated time-lapse of category four intensity Hurricane Fiona barrelling through the northern Caribbean as at 6:40 am Eastern Standard Time (EST) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. (Content courtesy of NOAA/NHC)

“We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” forecasters added.

Countries throughout the tropical Atlantic are being urged not to be lulled into complacency, as the CSU forecast further warned that the success of El Niño could reversely determine the intensity of the 2023 season.

“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season,” the CSU team, led by respected American meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, maintained.

This time around, however, using the 1991-2020 season as an average for activity, CSU meteorologists forecasted 13 named storms for the 2022 Hurricane Season. The figure is six systems fewer than the preliminary forecast published in April 2022.

The forecast projects that six of these storms will develop into hurricanes, and two into major hurricanes.

The probability of a major hurricane (of category strength three or higher) tracking into the Caribbean has fallen 11 percentage points this year, at 49 per cent.

Four systems caused extensive damage to sections of the Caribbean last year, namely Tropical Storm Bonnie, Hurricane Fiona, Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Lisa.

Ian and Fiona were also responsible for major infrastructural disruptions in Florida and Atlantic Canada.

The United States also stays in the crosshairs but with a drastically reduced likelihood of a storm hitting anywhere on the US coastline, now at a 44 per cent chance. The US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 22 per cent likely to be hit, while the Gulf Coast has a 28 per cent probability.

In the meantime, this year’s list of names, as published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), are as follows:

  • Arlene
  • Bret
  • Cindy
  • Don
  • Emily
  • Franklin
  • Gert
  • Harold
  • Idalia
  • Jose
  • Katia
  • Lee
  • Margot
  • Nigel
  • Ophelia
  • Philippe
  • Rina
  • Sean
  • Tammy
  • Vince
  • Whitney

READ: Seventh-consecutive above-average hurricane season predicted for 2022

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