Durrant Pate/ Contributor

International credit ratings agency Fitch has maintained Jamaica’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-’ with a stable outlook.

In coming to this assessment, Fitch observes that the Government has built a strong track record over more than a decade of adhering to a solid fiscal framework, resulting in a sharp reduction in Jamaica’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. According to Fitch, Jamaica is projected to experience a temporary economic contraction of 1.5 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2026 as reconstruction efforts advance.

The agency expects the Government will remain committed to its fiscal framework and will actively seek to reduce its debt burden once rebuilding is completed. Fitch praised Jamaica’s financial preparedness for Hurricane Melissa, describing it as a “robust multilayered financial toolkit”. 

Recovery and reconstruction efforts are expected to be supported by a concessional multilateral loan package valued at more than US$6 billion, along with government insurance and contingency funds totalling nearly US$250 million. Additional support will include lines of credit, a US$150 million catastrophe bond facility and substantial private insurance inflows. 

The rating agency further highlights Jamaica’s fiscal response, including the temporary suspension of the Fiscal Responsibility Law to accommodate urgent reconstruction costs. Fiscal balances are projected to move into deficit in the 2025 and 2026 financial years, but Fitch expects primary surpluses to resume in the 2027 financial year, in line with the Government’s target of reducing debt-to-GDP levels toward 60 per cent. 

Finance and the Public Service Minister, Fayval Williams, has welcomed Fitch Ratings’ decision, saying the rating affirmation and stable outlook reflect the Government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and the sacrifices made by Jamaicans.

She adds that the assessment also signals Fitch’s expectation that, despite the significant economic damage and recovery costs from Hurricane Melissa on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, the country will return to fiscal consolidation beginning in 2027.

She reiterates the Government’s continued commitment to fiscal responsibility.