Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
/ Our Today
administrator
(Reuters)
Some major banks expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year’s growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession but have flagged possibilities of “mild recessions” in Europe and the United Kingdom.
A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China’s growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative, cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
| Global | U.S. | China | Euro | UK | India | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.8% | .9% | .6% | 6.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | .5% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
| UBS | 2.6% | 1.10% | 4.4% | .6% | .6% | 6.2% |
| Barclays | 2.6% | 1.2% | 4.4% | .3% | .1% | 6.2% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.2% | 1.6% | 4.9% | .4% | .2% | 5.7% |
| HSBC | 4.9% | |||||
| BofA Global Research | 2.8% | 1.4% | 4.8% | .5% | .1% | 5.7% |
| Deutche Bank | 2.4% | .6% | 4.7% | .2% | .3% | 6.0% |
| US Inflation Annual (y/y for 2024) | US Inflation Annual (y/y for 2024) | Federal Funds Target Rate (Dec ’24) | |
| Headline CPI | Core PCE | ||
| Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.13% |
| Morgan Stanely | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.375% |
| UBS | 2.7% | 2.75% | |
| Wells Fargo | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.75% – 5% |
| Barclays | 2.7% | 5.25% – 5.50% | |
| JP Morgan | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% |
| BofA Global Research | 2.8% | 4.5% – 4.75% | |
| Deutche Bank | 2.10% | 3.63% |
The Fed’s main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.
| S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield | EUR/USD yield target | USD/JPY | USD/C NY | |
| Goldman Sachs | 4700 | 4.55% | 1.10 | 150 | 7.15 |
| Morgan Stanley | 4500 | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
| UBS | 4600 | 4.75% – 5.25% | 1.15 | 130 | 7.15 |
| Wells Fargo | 4600-4800 | 4.75%-5.25% | 1.08 – 1.12 | 136-140 | |
| Barclays | 4.25% | 1.09 | 145 | 7.20 | |
| J.P. Morgan | 3.75% | 1.13 | 146 | 7.15 | |
| BofA Global Research | 5000 | 4.25% | 1.15 | 142 | 6.90 |
| Deutche Bank | 5100 | 4.10% | 1.10 | 135 | |
| Societe Generale | 4650 | 3.27% | 1.15% |
As of 1107 GMT on Nov. 27, 2023:
- S&P 500: 4,559.34
- US 10-year yield: 4.4684%
- EUR/USD: 1.0952
- USD/CNY: 7.1524
- USD/JPY: 148.97
Comments