The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a devastating impact on Jamaica, but there are signs that a recovery of sorts is underway.

So said Prime Minister of Jamaica Andrew Holness on Tuesday night (January 26) as the keynote speaker at the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s (JSE) 16th Regional Investments & Capital Markets Conference 2021, which took place at the Jamaica Pegasus Hotel in New Kingston.

During his presentation, he said: “We are seeing the first signs of a robust and resilient government that can withstand a pandemic and will move on to even greater things. The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a major blow to our economy. In the first quarter of this financial year (April 2020-June 2020) we experienced the worst quarterly economic decline in Jamaica’s history with the economy contracting by 18.4 per cent.”

“The decline was directly related to a fall in our services sector led by an 85.6 per cent drop in the hotel and restaurant industry which captures the majority of tourism activity- that’s essentially decimation of that industry,” Holness added.

The prime minister remained undaunted and drew attention to positives that speak to the country’s ability to recover.

“We have however seen some green shoots of recovery and we remain hopeful, optimistic and indeed we are resilient. While the decline in tourism has impacted our foreign exchange earnings, remittance inflows have been strong. For the period April to October 2020, net remittance inflows increased by 31.6 per cent relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. This is a sign that when the chips are down we can count on our diaspora,” Holness contended.

He noted the uptick in the construction sector which grew by seven per cent in the July to September quarter which goes someway in explaining the financial performance of the Caribbean Cement Company which saw revenue growth of 32 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.

Turning his attention to business and consumer confidence, Prime Minister said there was significant improvement in the October to December quarter inching up for the first time in four quarters.

“So even in the midst of the pandemic, we are seeing some green shoots emerging. Government expenditure has remained on target with no new net borrowing even while revenues declined by J$71 billion as at December 31, 2020,” he said.

“A lot of demands are going to be made of the Government. As Prime Minister, I have to understand the frustration by some stakeholders. The demands are going to come, whether it be for wages, roads, hospitals, security but the way we have managed the pandemic, nothing has really happened except the health crisis but there is an economic crisis. We have managed it in such a way as to ease the effect but it is important that we bear in mind that the pandemic has spawn an economic crisis as well,” said PM Holness.

Jamaica, the prime minister added, is one of the few countries in the world that has been able to maintain debt sustainability throughout the pandemic. This, he said, was due to Jamaica exhibiting fiscal discipline for the last several years, which has held the country in good stead.

Bolstering his point, he said despite the worst pandemic seen in over a hundred years, Jamaica’s net international reserve’s still stand in the region of US$3 billion, despite the fallout in the country’s largest foreign exchange earner.

“The Government is committed to remaining steadfast on the path of prudent management. We will institutionalise fiscal transparency and further strengthen Jamaica’s fiscal responsibility framework. We have tabled the Independent Fiscal Commission Act 2020 to establish an independent fiscal commission that will promote sound fiscal policy and fiscal management to sustain fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability,” pledged the Jamaican Government’s top official.

Jamaica is one of the few countries whose bonds maintained a premium during the pandemic and the Prime Minister attributes this to the government ensuring good fiscal management of the people’s affairs.

“Jamaica has shown deep resilience. We have taken a risk-based management approach to the crisis while maintaining macroeconomic stability and we stand ready to rebound even stronger in 2021,” declared Prime Minister Holness.