Durrant Pate/Contributor 

National Security Minister Dr Horace Chang says Jamaica could attain a historic milestone this year, given that, based on current trends, murders in Jamaica should end 2025 below 800.

During his Sectoral Debate presentation in Parliament on Tuesday (April 29), Chang noted that between January 1 and April 27, there have been 227 homicides, which represents 132 fewer lives lost or a 37 per cent reduction compared to the corresponding period in 2024. Major crimes are down by 19 per cent over the same period.

If the current downward trend in murders continues, Minister Chang emphasised that Jamaica is on track to record fewer than 800 murders in 2025.

“This would represent not only a historic low, but a major victory for every law-abiding Jamaican. Madam Speaker, I say to the public do not to watch the headlines, pay attention to the trend lines! In today’s world, access to information through social media is faster than ever. However, headlines are often sensational, focusing on the negative while giving little attention to the positive,” he told the Parliament.

Targeting the gun 

Chang explained that the security forces’ relentless focus on gangs and their weapon of choice, the gun, is paying dividends. Between January 1 and April 26, a total of 356 firearms were seized, marking a 21 per cent increase over the same period in 2024. 

In addition, 9,605 rounds of ammunition have been recovered so far this year, a 130% increase compared to 2024. Of note, since November 2022, when the Firearms (Prohibition, Restriction, and Regulation) Act came into effect, there has been a steady increase in the recovery of firearms. 

“These are strong signals, Madam Speaker. The tide has turned!“ Dr Chang retorted. The national security minister highlighted that various studies have proven the capacity of States of Emergency (SOEs) to rapidly reduce killings, suppress violent crime and restore a sense of order in communities under the siege of violence. 

‘SOEs working effectively’

He pointed to a recent empirical study, conducted by econometric and public policy scholars at Florida International University, which employed a range of causal models to assess the effectiveness of SOEs in Jamaica, over both the short and long term.

According to him, “The results were compelling. On average, across each police division, there was a 62 per cent reduction in violent crimes following the implementation of the SOE compared to the same period prior in the same divisions. This decline was primarily driven by reductions in murders (56 per cent), shootings (58 per cent), aggravated assaults (18 per cent), and robberies (41 per cent).”

The study shows a 62 per cent reduction in violent crime (murder, shooting, assault, rape and robberies) per 1,000 population within a 90-day window surrounding the implementation of the SOE. The research further alluded to a 56 per cent reduction in murders per 1,000 population within a 90-day window surrounding the implementation of the SOE.

In concluding, Minister Chang argued, “Let me be clear, Madam Speaker, we have never suggested that SOEs were a ‘silver bullet’ for our crime problem. They are but one set of tools in a broader, multi-pronged strategy designed to restore law and order. That is why we have persisted in implementing a comprehensive policy for national security.”

This included the expansion and development of the police force, sustainable crime reduction policies, and the coordinated work of all the relevant ministries, departments and agencies.