The passage of Hurricane Melissa in the final quarter of 2025 has dampened businesses’ expectations of improving economic conditions over the short term

This was reflected in the Jamaica Conference Board Survey of Business Confidence, which declined to 133 points in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, down from 143.7 points in the third quarter last year. Survey respondents expressed uncertainty about the economic outlook due to the disruptive effects of Hurricane Melissa on Tuesday, October 28.

Elaborating on the survey findings at Terra Nova-All-Suite Hotel in St Andrew on Tuesday morning, January 20, pollster Don Anderson stated, “Very important to note that across the various indices that create and feed into and drive that final overall index, all of them fell.”

Of significant note, the Current Business Conditions Index declined to 145 points in Q4—the lowest since 2022—marking an 8.1 per cent decrease from Q3. At the same time, 96 per cent expect prices to increase over the next year.

“Despite all of that, a significant number of businesses across sectors intend to invest,” Anderson shared.

He noted, however, that some respondents cited deterrents to invest in their companies, such as a lack of capital financing options, low or inadequate revenue, high input costs, logistic challenges, and low consumer spending.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, businesses commonly reported that the most significant impact on their investment portfolios was commercial disruption rather than direct physical loss.

Even with those challenges, businesses have shifted their focus to building emergency cash reserves, improving disaster preparedness and business continuity plans, diversifying products/services and markets, and investing in more resilient infrastructure and technology, and increasing insurance coverage.

Due to the damage caused by the passage of the Category 5 cyclone in western Jamaica, Anderson and his team reduced their sample size to companies outside that region. However, he pointed out they were still able to capture businesses with operations in western parishes.

The Jamaica Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence had a similar result to the business confidence survey, as all five components of the index declined in Q4. The dip to 164 points indicated a reversal of growing optimism over four quarters that started in Q3 2024.

However, Anderson noted that while Hurricane Melissa shaved expectations in Q3, another reason for the disparity with Q4 of 2025 was the holding of the general election.

“We have a pattern that in an election year, both business and consumer confidence tend to peak and then shortly thereafter, we find that it falls off. And that is the expectation of what is going to come out of an election, and quite often the disappointment of what didn’t come out of an election. So that is what creates that kind of peak,” he said.

“But in all of the variables that account for the overall consumer confidence, there was a noticeable decline in the fourth quarter. It’s not surprising based on the ravages of Hurricane Melissa,” he added.

As a result of the climate shock, some consumers expressed concerns about price increases and the rise in the cost of living. Others were concerned about damage to homes, disruption in children’s schooling, disruptions in access to services such as utilities and transport,

Looking ahead, consumers plan to strengthen or rebuild their housing structures, increase emergency savings, and purchase home insurance.