Fuelled by historic sea surface temperatures, the tropical Atlantic basin faces a sustained threat this year as preliminary forecasts for the 2024 Hurricane Season depict yet another above-average spell.

The respected Colorado State University (CSU), publishing its 39th Atlantic basin seasonal forecast today (April 4), explained that current environmental conditions, influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, remain favourable to a hyperactive season.

“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook,” the CSU concluded.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” forecasters added.

Utilising the 1991-2020 season as an average for activity, CSU meteorologists anticipate 23 named storms for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. The forecast projects that 11 of these systems will develop into hurricanes, and five into major hurricanes.

Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely #LaNina are the primary reasons.https://t.co/hp3sqyA3hC pic.twitter.com/JqpmQcqMjE

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 4, 2024

The probability of a major hurricane (of category strength three or higher) tracking into the Caribbean stands at 66 per cent—17 percentage points higher than 100 years ago, when the likelihood was 47 per cent.

The United States also stays in the crosshairs but with a drastically reduced likelihood of a storm hitting anywhere on the continental American coastline, is currently at a 62 per cent chance. The US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 34 per cent likely to be hit, while the Gulf Coast has a 42 per cent probability.

It is a return to hyperactivity for CSU forecasters, who had predicted the first below-average season in nearly a decade last year.

The CSU had predicted 13 named storms, nine of which could develop into hurricanes and four still as major hurricanes, which was subsequently revised to above-average in July.

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At its November 30 conclusion, some 20 named storms later, meteorologists declared that the 2023 Hurricane Season was the joint (with 1993) fourth most active behind 2021 (21 named storms), 2005 (28) and 2020 (30).

Fortunately, the islands of the Caribbean were only directly impacted by hurricanes Franklin, Idalia and Tammy, as well as Tropical Storm Bret.

Meanwhile, this year’s list of names, as published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), are as follows:

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Kirk
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sara
• Tony
• Valerie
• William