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Durrant Pate/Contributor

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning that while St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) has shown resilience in the face of repeated economic shocks, rising fiscal pressures and debt vulnerabilities continue to pose significant risks to its long-term stability.

The IMF warning comes following its 2026 Article IV consultation with the twin-island Caribbean territory. The IMF is also highlighting the need for urgent fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and stronger financial sector oversight to place the economy on a more sustainable path.

SVG has faced a series of setbacks over the past several years, including the pandemic, major natural disasters, and, more recently, higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. These pressures have widened fiscal deficits as the government has increased spending on post-disaster recovery, infrastructure projects, and social support measures. 

As a result, public debt has risen sharply, reaching 113 per cent of GDP in 2025, with the IMF cautioning that without decisive policy action, debt levels could continue climbing and pose serious financing risks.

Growth slowing down

The IMF assessment shows growth beginning to slow as post-pandemic momentum fades. Economic expansion moderated to 3.7 per cent in 2025, supported by strong tourism and construction activity but the outlook for 2026 and 2027 is weaker. 

Higher oil prices, a softer global economy, and the normalisation of construction activity are expected to slow growth further before it stabilises at more moderate levels over the medium term. Inflation is also projected to rise as commodity price shocks linked to the Middle East conflict filter through to domestic prices.

The Washington based global lender to countries reports that external imbalances remain another major concern. The current account deficit widened significantly, driven largely by construction-related imports and profit repatriation from hotels, despite strong tourism receipts. The IMF assessed SVG’s external position as substantially weaker than desirable and expects the deficit to remain elevated in the coming years, adding to external financing pressures.

To address these vulnerabilities, the IMF is calling for a comprehensive fiscal adjustment strategy focused mainly on expenditure reform rather than higher taxation. With tax revenue already relatively strong, the Fund recommends streamlining spending, moderating the public sector wage bill, improving pension sustainability, and strengthening the targeting of social support programmes while protecting vulnerable groups. 

Stronger tax admin necessary

Public investment, it says should be prioritised toward critical infrastructure and climate resilience rather than marketable assets that may create distortionary effects. The IMF is encouraging stronger tax administration, including broadening the VAT base and aligning special tax rates more closely with the standard rate. 

At the same time, the IMF is welcoming efforts to reactivate the fiscal responsibility framework and redesign fiscal rules to place debt on a downward trajectory. Greater transparency in debt management and medium-term fiscal planning was also identified as essential for maintaining investor confidence.

Beyond fiscal reforms, the Fund emphasised the importance of structural changes to improve growth potential. Transitioning to renewable energy, particularly solar power, the IMF reports could reduce energy costs and strengthen resilience against oil price shocks. Labour market reforms focused on youth and women, along with improvements in the business environment and stronger financial sector supervision, were also highlighted as priorities for long-term stability and inclusive growth.

The IMF’s assessment points to an economy that remains resilient but increasingly vulnerable. Without prompt policy action, fiscal and external risks could deepen. However, with credible reforms, stronger institutions, and disciplined debt management, SVG can improve resilience and create a more sustainable path for growth.