Durrant Pate/Contributor

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) is reporting that the annual headline inflation in November 2025 is running above Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projections.

In its latest monthly monetary policy report, the BOJ reports headline inflation at 4.4 per cent for November, which was above its projections and above the 2.9 per cent in October 2025. The BOJ targets inflation to be around four to six per cent for the fiscal year, which, based on the current trend, could break the six per cent border.

The higher headline inflation, compared with the previous month of October, is due mainly to higher food prices, reflecting early signs of the impact of Hurricane Melissa on the agricultural sector. Core inflation was 4.3 per cent at November 2025, which was above the outturn of 3.7 per cent at October 2025. The BOJ will continue to closely monitor the incoming data and maintain heightened surveillance of the second-round impact of higher food prices on core inflation.

Affirming that preserving a stable macroeconomic environment is essential to the country’s recovery and reconstruction efforts from Hurricane Melissa, the BOJ says it ”remains committed to ensuring that the inflationary effects of the hurricane are managed to limit hardships on vulnerable groups and to facilitate the conditions necessary for long-term economic recovery.”

Arising from the economic fallout from the category five storm, the BOJ anticipates a decline in real GDP in the -4.0 to -6.0 per cent range for fiscal year (FY) 2025/26, largely due to the extensive damage to infrastructure and disruption to productive activity. 

The central bank projects that the financial inflows from multilateral and private sources will support spending in the economy over the next three years to the extent that the capacity exists to execute planned projects. For FY2026/27, real GDP growth is projected in the range of negative 1.0 to 1.0 per cent, reflecting the commencement of recovery efforts, which will escalate in ensuing years.

Although the current account of Jamaica’s balance of payments is projected to deteriorate over the near-term, the BOJ is emphasising that international reserves will remain robust. The outturns for selected external indicators were mixed as oil prices declined while grains and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices increased.

The domestic banking system remains sound with adequate capital and liquidity, with the BOJ acknowledging that the domestic fiscal policy stance poses some risk to inflation over the near-term.