Durrant Pate/Contributor

Businesses are expecting inflation to rise to 7.1 per cent next year, above the Bank of Jamaica’s target range of 4.0 to 6.0 per cent, set by the Government of Jamaica.

In the BOJ’s March 2026 Survey of Businesses’ Inflation Expectations, respondents’ expectations of inflation 12 months ahead increased to 7.1% relative to 6.5% in the February 2026 survey. Businesses forecasted an annual point-to-point inflation rate for December 2026 of 6.4%, which is higher than the outturn of 4.3% at March 2026.

Accordingly, businesses’ perception of inflation control went down relative to the previous survey. Most respondents estimate the annual point-to-point inflation rate to be broadly in line with the actual rate. 

Interestingly, a sizeable share of respondents remained unaware of the rate of 4.0 to 6.0 per cent

Inflation Target Awareness 

The majority of respondents were aware of BOJ’s inflation target (76%). Notably, a significant share of respondents (31%) indicated that they weren’t aware of the point-to-point inflation rate at March 2026. However, there was an improvement in the number of respondents who correctly indicated the point-to-point inflation rate (49%).

Perception of inflation control

The index of businesses’ perception of inflation control decreased when compared to the February 2026 survey. This reflected a decrease in the number of respondents who were “satisfied” with the way inflation is being controlled. 

Exchange Rate Expectations 

In the March 2026 survey, respondents forecasted the exchange rate to depreciate over all three time horizons. 

Interest Rate Expectations 

The majority of respondents forecast the Bank’s policy rate, 3 months ahead, to remain the same. The proportion of respondents who were of this view decreased, relative to the previous survey. The 90- day Treasury bill (T-Bill) yield, 3 months ahead, was forecasted to be 6.1%, in line with the previous survey result of 6.1%.