Durrant Pate/Contributor

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) is reporting that the Jamaican economy contracted in the last quarter of 2025 (October-December) by 7.1 per cent when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Despite the positive momentum observed throughout most of the year, economic activity was significantly disrupted in the final quarter, resulting in economic contraction. This was largely as a result of the devastating effects of Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall on October 28 and caused an estimated US$8.8 billion in damage.

The economy grew by 5.1% in the July to September quarter, marking the strongest quarterly expansion for the year. This followed earlier gains of 1.1% in the first quarter and 1.7% in the second quarter, indicating a steady upward trajectory through the first nine months of 2025.

Last quarter contraction

However, the contraction in the last quarter resulted from declines of 5.9 per cent in the Services Industries and 10.7 per cent in the Goods Producing Industries. In the Goods Producing Industries, gross domestic product (GDP) declined for all industries: Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing (-17.7%), Mining & Quarrying (-37.5%), Manufacturing (-8.1%) and Construction (-2.5%). 

During the quarter the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was among the most severely impacted by the hurricane. Latest data showed that the impact of the Category 5 storm led to reduced crop yields, delayed planting schedules, and losses in livestock intended for slaughter during the period. 

The Mining & Quarrying industry was also negatively impacted due to hurricane damage to equipment and infrastructure, resulting in downtime and lost production days.

Lower performance in most service industries 

Lower performance was observed across all Services Industries, except Financial & Insurance Activities and Public Administration & Defence, which grew by 1.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively. Real value added decreased for Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management (-11.7%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (-2.2%), Accommodation & Food Services Activities (-31.0%), Transport & Storage (-7.5%), Information & Communication (-12.6%), Real Estate & Business Activities (-3.5%) and Education, Health & Other Services (- 6.8%). 

The Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management industry faced service disruptions due to extensive damage to the electricity grid across several parishes. This led to reduced electricity and further impacted water consumption for the review period.

The Accommodation & Food Services Activities industry was affected by the closure of some hotels and other short-stay lodging establishments due to damage from Hurricane Melissa. There was also a 43.0 per cent decline in foreign national arrivals to the island during the period. In the fourth quarter of 2025, a total of 367,927 foreign nationals visited the island compared to 645,575 in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Sub-sector performance

The Transport & Storage industry was impacted by reduced activity at the nation’s airports, with notable falls in tourism-related travel. The total number of passengers passing through the nation’s airports fell by 34.6 per cent to 1,056,797 in 2025 from 1,615,188 in 2024. Compared to the previous quarter (July-September 2025), total value added at constant prices (seasonally adjusted) declined by 7.3 per cent. 

This was due to declines in the Services and Goods Producing Industries of 6.2 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively. Preliminary estimates indicated that the total value added at constant prices for the Jamaican economy increased by 0.1 per cent for the calendar year 2025. This was driven by 1.2 per cent growth in the Goods Producing Industries. However, the Services Industries declined by 0.3 per cent.