Keith Duncan, JMMB Group chief executive, is warning that the tight monetary policies of the past 15 months run the risk of inducing a recession in Jamaica.

The immediate past president of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ), speaking at Wednesday’s (June 28) Re-Align Business and Investment Conference, appealed for a loosening of credit into the economy as the post-COVID bounce recedes and growth levels return to “anemic one to two percent growth”.

Duncan noted that robust GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in financial year 2021/22 and 5.1 per cent, estimated for 22/23, is projected to fall to 1.6 per cent in 23/24 and fall back into the normal one-to-two per cent growth range for the following two years.

However, Duncan noted that “tight monetary policy threatens to push the economy’s growth rate below that normal range of one-to-two per cent and into a recession”.

His prescriptions came among a menu of solutions to fix the often elusive goal of achieving economic growth with social harmony in Jamaica aired at the conference, hosted by Entrepreneurial Partners Limited in association with the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) at the AC Marriott Hotel in New Kingston.

Duncan added that the US Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 5.15 per cent last week and in the neighbouring Dominican Republic—interest rates have been reduced by 50 bps two weeks ago—strengthening the case for monetary policy to be loosened to allow Jamaica to continue on its growth path.

Duncan also observed that “as the BOJ implemented measures to maintain relative stability, the market has become less skittish and therefore it requires much less foreign exchange interventions to maintain stability”.

He pointed out that the low growth rate of the Jamaican economy had resulted in one of the lowest productivity levels  with a GDP per capita of US$4,971 in Jamaica, compared to the average of US$8,022 in the Latin American and Caribbean region, with Barbados recording US$14,800 and the Dom Rep US$8,410 boasting GDP per person.

The conference attracted a large turnout of corporate and small business leaders together with small and micro entrepreneurs, who engaged in lively deliberations on issues ranging from raising equity financing from the JSE, its junior market and the social stock exchange.

Innovative ways of forming businesses, managing costs and raising equity were also explored as well as overcoming fetters to business development, namely the woeful trust deficit which has hindered the formation of partnerships on the island.

Jamaica-born pharmaceutical and medical equipment mogul, Dr Trisha Bailey, was the headline presenter and she gave a heartfelt outline of her recipe for business success which included thrift, faith and a single-minded focus on building out efficient lines of business within her area of focus – Home Medical Equipment (HME).

Bailey outlined lessons learned and critical steps and responses that catapulted her from rural life in Jamaica to HME Woman of the Year USA finalist and the first black person and only woman, to have a building named in her honour on the campus of her alumnus, the University of Connecticut.

Incisive and original presentations also came from Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) managing director Dr. Marlene Street Forrest, who spoke of the benefits of utilising the stock market and getting listed on the exchange; while Gordon Swaby, founder of EduFocal Limited, outlined his path which has led to expansion into the United States and Nigeria.