The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is today (September 6) reporting mixed fortunes for Tropical Storm Earl and Hurricane Danielle in the open Atlantic Ocean.

The NHC, in its 5:00 am Atlantic Standard Time (AST) update on Earl, found the system to be “a bit dishevelled”, though expectations are high for the storm to intensify into a hurricane over the next few days.

Located 555 kilometres north of the US Virgin Island of St Thomas, the centre of Tropical Storm Earl was pinpointed near latitude 23.4 North and longitude 65.4 West.

The fifth named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is moving north near 11 kilometres/hour and currently packs maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometres, with higher gusts.

On the forecast track, Tropical Storm Earl is anticipated to make a slow northward to north-northwestward motion through to Wednesday, after which “a faster motion toward the north-northeast and northeast is expected Wednesday night through Thursday night”.

“Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a hurricane during the next couple of days,” the NHC disclosed.

If projections pan out, Earl may become the season’s first major hurricane, with interests in Bermuda urged to continue monitoring the progress of the storm as it could brush the island around Friday morning.

While Earl poses no direct threat to land in the Caribbean, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 kilometres from the centre.

Further north, Hurricane Danielle has begun what NHC sleuths described as “a downward decline” and is expected to gradually weaken at its current location 1,345 kilometres west-northwest of The Azores.

The centre of Hurricane Danielle, as tracked by satellite was situated near latitude 42.1 North and longitude 41.9 West, churning toward the northeast at 13 kilometres/hour. Still a category one system, Hurricane Danielle is packing less of a punch with maximum sustained winds near 120 kilometres/hour.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 kilometres from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 kilometres.

In the meantime, a third “broad and elongated” area of low pressure is being closely watched off the western coast of Africa, dumping disorganised showers and thunderstorms across the Cabo Verde Islands.

The NHC indicated that environmental conditions are conducive for some development of this system, with a tropical depression forming in the few days as it barrels westward to west-northwestward at 32 kilometres/hour over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds, however, are likely to become less conducive for development late this week.

Formation odds over the next two-to-five days are “medium” at 40 per cent and 60 per cent respectively.

Additionally, a tropical wave is ‘all but likely’ to emerge offshore West Africa in the next “day or two”, according to the NHC, with environmental conditions “generally conducive for some slow development” as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Development chances for this disturbance are “low” at 20 per cent over the next five days.

The next available names in the 2022 list are Fiona and Gaston.