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The sudden upsurge of violence and turmoil in Kenya over taxes has managed to gain the attention of many across the world.

Thus far, the vast majority of reports have focused chiefly on the country’s domestic situation and difficulties, along with the potential impact that these violent protests and crackdowns have had on the nation. However, one nation that may unexpectedly feel the shockwave of the chaos unfolding in Kenya is thousands of miles away in the Caribbean: Haiti.

Haiti is no stranger to the instability and violence that have manifested themselves in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi. Tensions and anarchy had grown exponentially in Haiti following the assassination of the country’s president, Jovenel Moïse, in 2021.

The country’s criminal gangs have managed to gain major traction across the nation, with United Nations estimates claiming that some 80 per cent of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, was under their control in March.

It was the pressure from these gangs that forced Prime Minister Ariel Henry and his government to resign earlier in the year. In spite of the vast influence of the Haitian gangs and criminals in the running of the country, the new acting Prime Minister of Haiti, Garry Conille, has vowed to end the chaos threatening to consume his nation.

Conille had placed key significance on the arrival of the 400 Kenyan police officers that had recently arrived as the first wave of a wider international response to curtail the anarchy in Haiti.

In the Prime Minister’s words, the entry of the Kenyans represented a ‘unique opportunity’ to restore order.

The United Nations had authorized a policing mission to Haiti, which was to consist of 2,500 police officers from various countries, all dedicated to tackling the country’s violent gangs.

The Kenyans are set to contribute the lion’s share of this force’s manpower, with Nairobi having pledged to dispatch 1,000 men, though only the aforementioned 400 have arrived thus far.

High hopes have been placed on this Kenyan-led mission to Haiti, with United States President Joe Biden describing it as the ‘best chance’ to restore democracy and order.

Haiti’s own local police force numbers only some 9,000 individuals who suffer from rampant corruption, disloyalty, and inefficiency and are tasked with keeping the peace in a country of over 11 million individuals.

For such a body, this task is impossible without substantial foreign aid and support, which is where the Kenyan-led police mission is to come in.

Though the 2,500-strong force is nowhere near enough to police the entire nation, it is hoped that with their assistance, the Haitian government can restore control of Port-au-Prince, which can then be used as a launchpad for further operations against Haiti’s gangs.

It would also go a long way toward presenting a strong front ahead of the nation’s scheduled elections later this year. Haiti has not undergone elections since 2016, during which the now-assassinated Jovenel Moïse became President.

The sudden influx of violence in Kenya, though, has raised major concerns across the United Nations over the deployment of Kenyan police forces to Haiti.

The Kenyan police, though known for their efficiency and skill, are also infamous for their brutality and extreme measures to keep the peace. In Nairobi, the Kenyan police have been accused of utilizing live ammunition against protestors demonstrating against new tax hikes.

The Kenya Medical Association claims that almost two dozen individuals have lost their lives in the carnage, with another 20 in serious and critical condition. A not-insignificant lobby has now begun to fear that if the Kenyan police are willing to engage in such brutal acts against their own populace, how will the Haitian people fare?

At the same time, another issue of note is whether the ensuing instability in Kenya will force Nairobi to end their mission to Haiti altogether. Protests in the Kenyan capital have spread across much of the country, with the Kenyan authorities having authorized the military to be deployed in an effort to restore order and aid the stricken police.

As mentioned earlier, the Kenyans had promised to send 1,000 men to Haiti, though 600 of that number have not yet arrived. With the situation at home deteriorating, there is speculation that the Kenyan regime will consider holding onto these men and perhaps recalling those already sent to aid in quieting their own internal turmoil.

Kenyan President William Ruto has openly stated that he has every confidence in the ability of the forces being dispatched to Haiti and that it is his nation’s duty to assist the failed Caribbean state.

Analysts have noted that this is part of a wider attempt by Ruto to improve Kenya’s standing, influence, and position in global affairs, but now this risks being totally undercut by the problems he faces at home.

Some speculate that these issues may force Ruto to backtrack on his foreign efforts and reorient to domestic issues. Whether this would include a withdrawal from Haiti is still unclear.

Should the Kenyans move to withdraw from Haiti, this would mark the second UN intervention into the country that has been called off without major success, with the infamous 2004–2017 peacekeeping mission being the prior example.

That operation, involving over 4,000 personnel from several nations across the world, moved into Haiti following a coup d’état, remaining after the 2010 Haitian earthquake that destroyed Port-au-Prince.

This intervention was unable to prevent the resumption of instability and violence in their wake or the mass humanitarian crisis following the Magnitude 7 tremor in 2010, which led to over 100,000 deaths.

It would cause further controversy after it was revealed that a cholera outbreak that occurred in the aftermath of the earthquake had its origins in UN personnel sent to the country.