The US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) says environmental conditions are conducive for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five to develop into a tropical depression as early as tonight (August 12) on its approach to the northeastern Caribbean.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, formerly Invest98L, is then expected to begin influencing weather conditions across several Leeward Islands as Tropical Storm Ernesto into Tuesday.

As at 11:00 am Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the centre of Potential Cyclone Five was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.6 West—or roughly 700 kilometres east-southeast of Antigua.

The system is barrelling west at a brisk 43 kilometres/hour and currently packs maximum sustained winds near 55 kilometres/hour, with higher gusts.

A tropical storm warning has been activated in the following countries/territories:

• St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
• Guadeloupe
• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten
• British Virgin Islands
• US Virgin Islands
• Puerto Rico
• Vieques
• Culebra

Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.

On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek.

Computer-generated projections put Bermuda in the system’s direct crosshairs around Saturday morning.

Formation chances are ‘high’, at 90 per cent over the next two to seven days.