The Jamaica Meteorological Service has again activated its monitoring protocols as regional projections warn of a possible weather system developing late next week.
In a statement on Thursday (October 15), Director Evan Thompson said that while one of the models predicts the formation of Major Hurricane Epsilon, the southern Caribbean is currently calm and there are other projections being considered.
“We’ve been taking note of a particular computer model that is predicting that a tropical cyclone is likely to develop south of Jamaica and make its way closer and closer to the island—even turning into a major hurricane,” Thompson explained.
“Of course that is one possibility but there are other models predicting other things and we continue to bear all these in mind as we make our projections and pass these out to the public,” he said, adding, “The [Caribbean] conditions are being closely monitored.”
The broad monsoon trough, located in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea—between the eastern coast of Colombia and the western edge of Nicaragua—reportedly has a low, 20 per cent chance of further development within the next five days.
According to the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC), the area is producing isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation as at 1:05 am Eastern Standard Time (EST).
On the NHC watchlist there are currently no systems in the Caribbean basin being monitored.
By many accounts, conditions at present are not favourable for further development and it would be too early to indicate whether the system strengthen as projected.
If the computer model was to pan out, however, an organised system could be on the horizon; possibly moving into the crosshairs of Jamaica by next week Thursday or Friday.