CARIB | Oct 3, 2022

Not over: Caribbean put on alert as activity again ramps up in the Atlantic

Gavin Riley

Gavin Riley / Our Today

Pre-dawn, satellite imagery showing weather conditions over the entire tropical Atlantic Basin as 4:20 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on Monday, October 3, 2022. (Photo: National Hurricane Center)

Just roughly two months from the ‘end’ of the 2022 Hurricane Season, meteorologists are actively monitoring two new disturbances in the eastern Atlantic Ocean today (October 3).

In its tropical weather outlook this morning, the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) advised that a disorganised tropical wave hundreds of miles east of the Windward Islands continues to move generally west.

According to the NHC, environmental conditions are “favourable for gradual development”, with a tropical depression potentially forming around the middle of this week. At that point, the hurricane watchdog said the depression is ‘unlikely’ to strengthen further by the end of the week due to “increasing upper-level winds”.

Expected to chart a similar path as the destructive Ian in its early stages, its formation odds over the next two-to-five days are “low” and “medium” at 30 and 40 per cent respectively.

Interests in the eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Grenada, St Vincent and St Lucia, should continue to track this system, the NHC added.

Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure hundreds of miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is being followed by weather sleuths.

The five-day tropical weather outlook for the Caribbean Basin as at 2:00 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on Monday, October 3, 2022. (Photo: National Hurricane Center)

The low-pressure system is expected to meet similarly favourable environmental conditions by mid-week, likely becoming a tropical depression. Like its Caribbean-adjacent counterpart, however, this disturbance is also unlikely to organise itself owing to “increasing upper-level winds”.

Still, its formation chances over the next two-to-five days are “medium” and “high” at 40 and 70 per cent.

The next two available names in the 2022 Hurricane Season list are Julia and Karl.


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