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Prepared for Our Today | Capital Markets & Investments Desk

A capital allocator’s guide to the reports, dates, and variables that matter most this season

April 2026  | 

12.5% S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth

78% beating estimates (early)

~45% IT sector earnings growth

6 consecutive double-digit qtrs

OVERVIEW

First-quarter earnings season for 2026 has arrived at a pivotal moment for global capital markets. After a turbulent start to the year shaped by geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and shifting Federal Reserve expectations, corporate earnings represent the most direct test of whether the underlying economy remains as resilient as equity valuations have long assumed.

The S&P 500 is expected to post blended earnings growth of 12.5% for the first quarter  the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, according to FactSet data. Of the 32 S&P 500 companies that had reported at the time of writing, 78% had beaten analyst consensus estimates. That early read is encouraging, but the season’s true weight lies ahead: the technology giants, the industrial bellwethers, and the healthcare institutions that collectively drive market direction.

Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to report year-on-year earnings growth. The headline story, however, remains concentrated in information technology, where consensus estimates point to sector-level earnings growth of approximately 45%  a figure driven almost entirely by AI-related capital deployment, cloud platform expansion, and the monetisation of large language model infrastructure. For investors, this season is not merely a financial scorecard. It is the first real-world stress test of whether Big Tech’s staggering AI capital expenditure is beginning to generate proportional revenue returns.

The Market Backdrop

Entering this earnings cycle, equity markets had recovered meaningfully from the volatility of late February and March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallying to all-time highs not seen since January  buoyed by signals of de-escalation in the Middle East and growing confidence that the geopolitical energy shock has not yet materially impaired corporate fundamentals.

Oil, which briefly surpassed $110 per barrel during the worst of the regional conflict, has retreated toward $80  a development that simultaneously reduces input cost pressure for industrials and airlines, while compressing the extraordinary windfall that energy majors enjoyed in the first quarter. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, for example, had surged 42% and 34% respectively year-to-date on the energy spike; their forward guidance will now need to reckon with a materially different commodity price environment.

The Magnificent Seven  Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla account for 33.7% of the S&P 500 by market capitalisation as of April 2026. Collectively, they have lagged the rest of the index so far this year, a reversal of the pattern that defined 2023, 2024, and much of 2025. This rotation toward the broader market is a structural feature of the current environment: earnings growth outside the Magnificent Seven is estimated at 11%, and investors are beginning to look beyond AI mega-caps for durable return opportunities.

Stocks to watch now – Week of April 21

The week commencing April 21 represents the first major inflexion point of the season, bringing together technology, healthcare, industrials, aerospace, and defence names across the Nasdaq, NYSE, and broader S&P 500. The following companies merit particular attention.

TSLA NASDAQ	Tesla, Inc.  |  Apr 22 · After Close Tesla is the first of the Magnificent Seven to report, and it arrives with a cloud overhead. Q1 deliveries came in at 358,000 vehicles  well below the 369,000 Wall Street expected  raising immediate questions about near-term demand and margin compression. The stock has been the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven YTD, down approximately 19%. Watch: Q1 margin guidance, Robotaxi commercialisation timeline, and the AI5 chip development update.
UNH NYSE	UnitedHealth Group  |  Apr 21 The largest health insurer in the United States, UnitedHealth’s results carry disproportionate weight for the entire healthcare sector. With regulatory scrutiny on managed care reimbursements intensifying and Optum’s consulting and pharmacy benefit management arms under the spotlight, the market will be dissecting every line of this report. Watch: Medical loss ratio, Optum revenue trajectory, and any commentary on Medicare Advantage reimbursement pressures.
BA NYSE	Boeing  |  Apr 22 Boeing’s recovery narrative is one of the most watched in the industrials space. After years of 737 MAX crises and supply chain dysfunction, investors are looking for evidence that deliveries are normalising and that the defence segment can provide a reliable earnings floor. The geopolitical backdrop  with NATO defence spending commitments rising  adds further relevance to its backlog. Watch: Commercial aircraft delivery count, 737 MAX programme update, and defence order book growth.
TXN NASDAQ	Texas Instruments  |  Apr 22 Texas Instruments is the most reliable leading indicator for the broader semiconductor cycle outside of AI chips. Its heavy exposure to industrial and automotive end markets  rather than data centre AI  makes its guidance a critical read on whether real-economy chip demand is recovering from the 2023–2024 inventory correction cycle. Watch: Q2 revenue guidance, industrial end-market commentary, and automotive semiconductor demand signals.
LRCX NASDAQ	Lam Research  |  Apr 22 As one of the world’s leading providers of wafer fabrication equipment, Lam Research is a direct proxy for capital spending by TSMC, Samsung, and the major US chipmakers. With AI driving an unprecedented buildout of advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory capacity, Lam sits at the intersection of two of the most powerful structural trends in technology. Watch: Wafer fab equipment shipments, HBM and advanced packaging demand, and China export restriction impact on revenue.
RTX NYSE	RTX (Raytheon Technologies)  |  Apr 21 With NATO member states accelerating defence spending in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions, RTX’s Raytheon missile systems division is operating with one of the most favourable demand environments in decades. The Pratt & Whitney engine business simultaneously benefits from the global commercial aviation recovery. Few industrial names carry the dual-catalyst profile that RTX does entering this earnings season. Watch: Missile and munitions order book, Pratt & Whitney delivery cadence, and revised 2026 defence guidance.

The season’s defining reports – Week of April 28 and Beyond

If the week of April 21 is the curtain-raiser, the week of April 28 is the main event. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all report on the same evening  April 29  in what may be the most consequential single day of earnings disclosure for global equity markets since Q3 2023. The results of these four companies will determine whether the AI investment supercycle is translating into measurable revenue growth, or whether the hundreds of billions in capital expenditure committed over the past eighteen months remain largely a forward bet.

MSFT NASDAQ	Microsoft Corporation  |  Apr 29 · After Close Microsoft is the single most consequential earnings report of the season for the technology sector. Azure’s AI-driven cloud growth and the commercial adoption trajectory of Microsoft 365 Copilot at $30 per user per month are the two variables that will set the tone for the entire enterprise AI investment thesis. Analysts expect $4.04 EPS  16.8% growth  and Azure constant-currency growth in the 37–38% range, consistent with last quarter’s 39%. Watch: Azure AI workload growth, Copilot enterprise seat count, and guidance on $37.5B quarterly capex trajectory.
GOOGL NASDAQ	Alphabet (Google)  |  Apr 29 · After Close Alphabet enters its Q1 report with Google Cloud on a remarkable trajectory  the segment grew 47.8% in Q4 2025 and is approaching a $70 billion annual run rate. The more complex question is whether AI-native search competition from OpenAI and others is creating structural pressure on Search revenue, which remains the Group’s primary earnings engine. Revenue consensus sits near $107 billion  approximately 19% growth year-on-year. Watch: Search revenue resilience, Google Cloud growth rate versus Q4 momentum, and YouTube advertising trends.
META NASDAQ	Meta Platforms  |  Apr 29 · After Close Meta enters this earnings cycle with arguably the most unambiguous analyst consensus of any mega-cap in the market  42 analysts covering the stock with zero sell ratings. Revenue is projected near $55 billion, representing 32% year-on-year growth, driven by its AI-powered advertising engine. The strategic wildcard is Meta’s April commitment to deploy one gigawatt of its custom MTIA silicon if successful; the shift away from Nvidia GPU dependence would be a structural margin catalyst. Watch: Q2 revenue guidance, MTIA chip deployment progress, and AI-driven ad targeting efficiency metrics.
AMZN NASDAQ	Amazon  |  Apr 29 · After Close Amazon is the best-performing Magnificent Seven stock year-to-date, up approximately 8%, reflecting growing confidence in AWS profitability and the advertising segment’s rapid growth. The core tension in this report is between AWS margin expansion  which has been exceptional  and softening retail operating income as the consumer environment remains uncertain. AWS’s AI cloud offering and its ability to compete with Azure and Google Cloud will be the primary long-term valuation driver. Watch: AWS revenue and operating margin, advertising segment growth, and any commentary on AI infrastructure payback timelines.
NVDA NASDAQ	Nvidia Corporation  |  May 28 · After Close Nvidia reports last  and for good reason. By late May, the market will have heard from every major hyperscaler about their AI capital expenditure plans, and Nvidia’s results will serve as the definitive validation or refutation of those spending commitments. The Blackwell GPU architecture ramp is the central variable: any delay or demand softening in Blackwell adoption would reverberate across the entire AI supply chain. Consensus expects another record quarter. Watch: Blackwell GPU shipment volumes, data centre segment revenue, and forward guidance from hyperscaler customers.

Full earnings calendar – Key dates at a glance

The table below provides a consolidated reference for the earnings dates most relevant to capital markets participants this season. All times are Eastern Time unless otherwise noted; dates marked ‘After Close’ reflect post-market reporting.

DATE	COMPANY	TICKER	KEY WATCH
Apr 21	UnitedHealth Group	UNH	Medical loss ratio, Optum performance
Apr 21	GE Aerospace	GE	Engine orders, defence programme guidance
Apr 21	RTX (Raytheon)	RTX	Missile order book, NATO-driven demand
Apr 21	3M	MMM	Margin recovery, litigation settlement progress
Apr 22	Tesla	TSLA	Q1 deliveries miss, Robotaxi timeline, AI5 chip
Apr 22	Boeing	BA	737 MAX deliveries, supply chain normalisation
Apr 22	Texas Instruments	TXN	Industrial/auto semi cycle guidance
Apr 22	Lam Research	LRCX	AI wafer fab equipment demand, China exposure
Apr 22	ServiceNow	NOW	AI agent revenue, RPO growth trajectory
Apr 22	IBM	IBM	watsonx AI traction, hybrid cloud growth
Apr 22	AT&T	T	Subscriber net adds, free cash flow conversion
Apr 23	Alphabet	GOOGL	Google Cloud growth, Search vs. AI competition
Apr 24	Procter & Gamble	PG	Volume vs. price mix, emerging market demand
Apr 29	Microsoft	MSFT	Azure growth, Copilot seat count, capex
Apr 29	Meta Platforms	META	AI ad engine, MTIA chip deployment, margin
Apr 29	Amazon	AMZN	AWS AI revenue, advertising segment, retail margin
Apr 30	Apple	AAPL	Services growth, India manufacturing, AI pipeline
May 1	Amazon Web Services	AMZN	Full Q1 detailed segment breakdown
May 7	Walt Disney	DIS	Streaming profitability, parks attendance
May 28	Nvidia	NVDA	AI chip demand, Blackwell ramp, data centre capex

Cross-sector themes for the season

Beyond the individual stock stories, four macro themes will define how this earnings season is ultimately interpreted by the market.

AI capital expenditure payback. The four hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta  collectively spent over $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025 alone. This season’s results will be scrutinised for evidence that those investments are generating proportional revenue uplift. Azure, Google Cloud, and AWS will each need to show accelerating AI workload revenue to sustain current valuations.

Consumer resilience under pressure. Airlines, consumer staples companies such as Procter & Gamble, and retailers will provide the clearest read on whether American and Caribbean consumers are absorbing higher energy costs and sticky inflation, or beginning to retrench. Delta Air Lines’ pre-season warning about capacity reduction was the first concrete sign of demand softness in the consumer economy.

Defence and aerospace acceleration. With NATO members accelerating defence budgets and the commercial aviation recovery consolidating, names such as RTX, GE Aerospace, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman are operating with multi-year order backlogs. This earnings season will reveal whether delivery execution is matching the demand pipeline  the primary operational risk for the sector.

Semiconductor cycle recovery. Texas Instruments and Lam Research will provide the clearest read on whether the industrial and automotive semiconductor inventory correction that characterised 2023 and 2024 has fully resolved. AI-driven demand for advanced chips is well-established; the question for the broader chip sector is whether real-economy demand has returned to growth.

Final Word

This is the earnings season that will answer the question markets have been asking for two years: is the AI cycle real, broad, and durable enough to justify the valuations investors have assigned to it? If Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon report strong AI-driven revenue acceleration on April 29, and Nvidia follows in late May with a record data centre quarter, the bull case for technology and the broader market will receive its most powerful fundamental validation to date.

If, on the other hand, AI revenue growth disappoints relative to the capex invested, or guidance language turns cautious, the re-rating could be swift and significant. Either way, the next six weeks of corporate reporting will provide more clarity on the state of the global economy and the future of AI-driven investing than any macroeconomic data release of the year.

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