Though the Atlantic Basin has enjoyed two weeks of relative calm, the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) is warning against complacency as this year’s hurricane season could ramp up on its approach to ‘peak intensity’ in the coming weeks.

The NHC, while advising that “tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours”, presented data trends for Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm formation between 1944 and 2020.

In that 76-year window, the hurricane season routinely builds in activity throughout August before climaxing in mid-September, then petering out into October-November.

“Although the Atlantic is currently quiet, we’re getting very close to the time of the season when activity typically tends to ramp up quickly. Remember to check the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for updates on tropical activity as we head towards the heart of hurricane season,” the NHC posted to X, formerly Twitter.

Although the Atlantic is currently quiet, we're getting very close to the time of the season when activity typically tends to ramp up quickly. Remember to check the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for updates on tropical activity as we head towards the heart of hurricane… pic.twitter.com/QH8nLNvKp0

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 9, 2023

As the unusual 2023 hurricane season progresses, meteorologists continue to closely monitor the effect of a persistent El Niño phenomenon to see whether soaring oceanic surface temperatures will impact on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic.

Just last Thursday (August 3), the respected Colorado State University (CSU) updated its seasonal hurricane forecast for 2023 to above-average, up from below-average in April.

“While a robust El Niño has developed and is likely to persist for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic has record warm sea surface temperatures for this time of year,” CSU indicated.

CSU experts, led by Philip Klotzbach, are now predicting 18 named storms—five greater than its preliminary forecast of 13—nine of which could develop into hurricanes and four still as major hurricanes (category three intensity or higher).

Updated @ColoradoStateU Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast continues to predict above-normal season: 18 named storms (including 5 that have formed), 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Big question is how record warm Atlantic interacts with #ElNino:https://t.co/Pf499CaBvs pic.twitter.com/WHIGgzDhAK

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 3, 2023

The probability of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean has since risen marginally and now stands at 53 per cent.

The continental United States also sees a slightly increase likelihood of a storm hitting anywhere on the US coastline, at 48 per cent chance. The US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 25 per cent likely to be hit, while the Gulf Coast has a 31 per cent probability.

While five systems have since formed—unnamed (identified in January), Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Don—only Don reached hurricane status in what was an unusually active June/mid-July period.

The 2023 Hurricane Season concludes on November 30.