The word elicits shudders from economists and makes politicians shiver, but would ‘recession’ by any other name sound just as problematic?

A Monday (February 10) tweet by Spectator Index, a popular geopolitical and statistical website, has since triggered a meltdown by senior government officials on X, formerly Twitter.

The tweet, suggesting that Jamaica was among six countries currently experiencing a recession, immediately dismayed the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) whose members insisted the classification was erroneously attributed to the island.

Paraguay, New Zealand, Turkey, Latvia and Ecuador were included in the Spectator Index’s tweet, with reports alluding to either a ‘technical recession’ or protracted economic downturn in each aforementioned country.

Defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), any recession pronouncement would understandably spell political doom for the JLP—currently staring down the barrel of a constitutionally due general election.

As of February 10, however, Jamaica is not ‘officially’ in a recession, which in some sense legitimises government backlash to the tweet.

This is supposedly the crux of the argument by Foreign Affairs Minister Kamina Johnson Smith, who led a swift and sustained anti-recession reaction.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) concluded that the island performed poorly in Q3 2024; recording a 2.8 per cent macroeconomic contraction for the July-September quarter compared to the same period in 2023.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl last July, the agricultural sector and infrastructure island-wide suffered heavy losses, derailing an impressive 12 quarters of consecutive economic growth for the Andrew Holness administration.

But, if the PIOJ all but expects further contraction, does waiting for the other shoe to drop make a recession any less inevitable?

In its outlook, the institute wrote: “Generally, the [economic] prospects are negative, due largely to the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl on the economy, compounded by several other hydrological events. Within this context, the economy is anticipated to contract for the remainder of this calendar and fiscal year.”

Since the tweet started making the rounds, ministers Fayval Williams and Matthew Samuda have joined in rejecting what they call a ‘recession agenda’ by Spectator Index.

Ardent JLP supporters claim that the page is a ‘ploy’ to tarnish Jamaica’s international reputation, egged on by the opposition despite Spectator Index being run by Australian doctor Abdul-Latif Halimi.

Sticking to their guns well into Tuesday morning, Williams and Johnson Smith continue to be at odds with Spectator Index—sharing infographics that seemingly speak on behalf of the entire country.

pic.twitter.com/YUwj5gDsM4

— Fayval Williams (@williams_fayval) February 11, 2025

I must say that this apparent denialist stance reeks of a Trump-esque rhetoric that is most concerning.

Why are Jamaican government ministers ‘going to war’ with a reputable statistics page when the PIOJ, our taxpayer-funded agency, points to the same writing on the wall?

Instead of facing up to reality, our leaders remain more preoccupied with sidestepping in favour of getting ahead of the truth. An embarrassing ordeal all around, truly, since we seem to revel in shooting the messenger.

I do not profess to know the intricacies of politics but the repeated insults to my intelligence are jarring.

Perhaps, a classy response would have been to say, ‘We await confirmation from the PIOJ as the government’s official source’, or even, ‘While we have not officially met the threshold for recession, the government is optimistic for a quick turnaround based on the historically low unemployment today and rising business and consumer confidence’.

I yearn for a government that can acknowledge reality without spiralling or clutching at straws to make a case for the contrary.