Tory leadership contender Rishi Sunak is a capable man and would make a good leader of the Conservative Party.

Nevertheless, a number of factors may have conspired against him that may see Liz Truss beat him in Monday’s (September 5) run-off.

Winter is coming and it will be a terrible one with inflation biting deeper and energy bill soaring. There will be plenty of disgruntled Brits and it will call for a cool head to sort this mess out.
On becoming Chancellor in 2020, he was thrown into the deep end and had to inject money into a stalling economy due to COVID shutdowns. There can be little doubt that he acquitted himself well and his favourability rating soared. Coronavirus Job Retention and Eat Out to Help Out were fantastic initiatives.

Many people weathered that storm because of Sunak’s largesse. His furlough mechanism protected 10 million jobs and saved may businesses and he should be given credit for that.

His modus operandi is that of conservative pragmatism. No wonder Nigel Lawson is backing him and likes his stewardship of the country’s finances.

Sunak said: “It would be complacent and irresponsible to ignore the risks of markets losing confidence in the British economy.”

In other works, this is no time to be going all wobbly and making promises to the detriment of the country.

The UK cannot return to the Jim Callaghan days which saw it go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1976. Sunak is not making promises he knows he cannot keep. Now that says a lot about him but politically that stance doesn’t win the crowd.

“I’m not going to embark on a borrowing spree worth tens of billions of pounds and put that on the country’s credit card and ask our kids and grandkids to pick up the tab because that’s not right. It’s irresponsible and it’s not conservative.”

Rishi Sunak is right here. Come winter, the UK could be looking at inflation at 15 per cent . Citibank is stimating inflation will rise to 18 per cent in 2023. Quelling inflation has to be the next prime minister’s priority. That is Sunak’s wheelhouse and the plan he has set out could see the UK come out of this relatively unscathed.

COVID, GLOBAL INFLATION A ONE-TWO PUNCH

Foreign affairs and other areas are not his strong suit, but you need horses for courses. Getting the economy on the right track before the next general election has to be the mission.

COVID and global inflation has been a one-two punch that will take time to recover from.

“I can’t give a guarantee that inflation is going to fall straight away. I think it is the biggest challenge that we face. What I can guarantee you, given that I have consistently said inflation is the number one priority facing the country, it will be my number one priority.

“I have been saying that since the beginning of the campaign. I can guarantee it will fall faster with my plan than it will with anyone else’s,” said Sunak, speaking with an LBC host.

His story is a compelling one. Son of a hard working pharmacist, Oxford graduate with an MBA, worked at Goldman Sachs, served in the Theresa May Government.

A clean living family man with two daughters. He presents well and looks the part. There can be little doubt that Rishi Sunak will be right at home on the world stage.

But anything can play in politics. Riding high in April, shot down in May. Many will see him as Brutus, the man who stuck the knife into the back of one of the Tory party’s most successful prime ministers. That may be unforgivable for the party faithful.

Then there is the issue with his rich wife who is non-domiciled for tax purposes as well as a future prime minister holding a green card to live and work in the United States -as an option.

Many Tories would frown on that and deem him unsuitable for the top spot. It’s a problem Liz Truss doesn’t have to contend with.

She hails from Leeds, went to a comprehensive school, pulled herself up by her boot straps, is relatable and she supported Boris Johnson. She didn’t throw him under the bus to advance into Number 10 Downing Street.

Then there is the issue of that huge swimming pool which with hindsight he should not have began constructing at this time. The optics just don’t look good.

Sunak is well polished, rather like Michael Heseltine, but some of the Tory old guard may be miffed by that. There’s nothing wrong with wearing 400lb Prada shoes and good suits.

‘TOO RICH OR TOO BROWN’

But like Heseltine it may be a case of “He who wields the knife never wears the crown”.

The Indian news channel WION has a show called Graivtas hosted by Palki Sharma Upadhyay.

On a feature entitled “ Too rich or too brown” it was mooted that Sunak may not be victorious because of his ethnicity and that he is well to do.

That shouldn’t be an issue today and it may just be media chatter. Many can agree that the guy is competent and the UK has come along way from the notion that a person of colour can never get the top job.

With Sunak it’s his ability to connect and empathise with ordinary Britons that is proving his Achilles heel . He does come across as a little remote and the thinking may very well be that may prove an impediment at the next general election.

On a separate note, it is understood that Palki Sharma Upadhyay is leaving WION. That is a big blow and she will be missed. She is an excellent broadcast journalist and helped to put WION on the map.

Sunak needed to be more entrenched in the Conservative Party and his moment may have come too soon. Over 43 per cent of its membership comprises of persons over the age of 65. He may be perceived as a young upstart, yes bright but full of it.

Liz Truss was underestimated. She fought a good campaign and came across as informed, relatable, astute. If the Sunak camp banked on her fluffing her lines and being unable to articulate her policies, they were misled. She has remained laser-focused on speaking to the Conservative Party membership, looking to win the battle with Sunak and then the war at the next general election.

She has remained relax while engaging and has won people over. She is a better natural politician than Sunak. It does help that the British media is backing her.

But the devil is in the details.

Massive tax cuts could backfire and drag the UK into a deeper financial crisis leading to capital flight. Inflation and tax cuts are strange bedfellows. One drags the blanket away from the other. The pound is now depreciating against other major currencies.

We are in the age of quantitative tightening. Some may say it was quantitative easing that help get us into this mess.

Truss is banking on tax cuts spurring growth and firing up the economy. Sunak believes bitter medicine will first have to be administered and once inflation has abated then taxes can come down.

Truss has been positioned as the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher and she isn’t refuting that. Thatcher is still regarded as one of the Conservative party’s greatest leaders.

But one doesn’t get the impression that Truss is as dogmatic and immovable as Thatcher which proved to be her undoing in the end.

Whoever becomes prime minister on Monday, 2022 has an almost insurmountable task on their hands. The party will have to be brought together with rifts mended. Then there is Brexit and resolving the UK’s position in Europe. Of course the immediate issue of addressing inflation and the economy will have to take centre stage. The war in Ukraine will drag on and the UK will have to determine what the outcome means for the continent. Can the Tories push back a resurgent Labour Party or will a house divided see the electorate show it the door.

HEELING THE WOUNDS OF BATTLE

Sunak is talented and a major asset to the party. If Truss wins it would not be a bad idea to appoint him Chancellor. He has said that he may not accept a position in a Truss government. Let’s hope he changes his mind on that.

If Sunak wins, he should keep Truss in place as foreign secretary. That would go some way in heeling the wounds of battle and help demonstrate a united front.

“Leadership starts by being straight with the country about the economic challenges we face. I have not chosen to say the things that people want to hear. I have said the things I believe our country needs to hear and although it hasn’t made my life easy, it is honest and for me that is what leadership is all about.”

Sunak may perhaps be too honest for the Conservative Party – this time.