Sleuths at the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) are closely monitoring four tropical disturbances as one system in central Atlantic Ocean shows an increased chance of strengthening this week.

The NHC, in its two-day tropical outlook on August 28, indicated that even with environmental conditions waning, the low-pressure system could still develop into “a tropical depression, at the very least” on its slow, westward crawl over the warm waters of the Atlantic.

Its formation chances over the next two-to-five days are a “medium”, 40 per cent and “high”, 70 per cent, respectively.

Should the projections pan out, Tropical Storm Danielle would emerge as the fourth named cyclone of the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. As at Sunday afternoon, August 28, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services activated a tropical cyclone alert for the Leeward Islands.

The closest disturbance, a low-pressure trough over the northwest Caribbean Sea, is also touted to further develop “during the middle part of this week”, the NHC disclosed, citing supportive conditions.

Currently moves west-northwest towards Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, the system has a “low” chance of further development over the next five days, at 20 per cent.

The third disturbance, described as a “small low-pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda”, continues to produce limited shower activity, according to NHC observations.

Only a watchful eye is being cast on the system for the time being, as strong upper-level winds and dry Saharan air are expected to limit significant development of this low-pressure area while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days. The system is likely to dissipate by midweek, NHC meteorologists advised. Formation likelihood over the next two-to-five days is listed as “low” at 10 per cent respectively.

Finally, another tropical wave is anticipated to emerge off the western coast of Africa by Monday night.

“Some gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic,” the NHC forecast indicated.

The possibility of further intensification over the next five days is “low”, at 20 per cent.

In the meantime, Earl, Fiona and Gaston are the next available names in the season.