In the absence of official reports, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has risen to 235,000 in the week ended October 4 from the estimate of roughly 224,000 the prior week.

This relatively low figure indicates that layoffs remain minimal. The Labour Department did not publish its weekly report last Thursday as normal, due to the government shutdown, but it did release downloadable data for most states. 

This marks the second consecutive week without the release of official figures. The Goldman Sachs analysis of state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown. Goldman Sachs economists estimated the number of initial jobless claims in Hawaii and Massachusetts and assumed these figures aligned with the most recently published data. 

Goldman Sachs adjusted available raw state-level data using seasonally adjusted factors pre-released by the US Department of Labour. A proxy for the number of people receiving benefits ticked up to 1.92 million in the week ended September 27 from the prior week’s estimated 1.91 million. 

Historical experience shows that once the US government reopens, the publication of delayed data will be postponed, with the delay typically lasting slightly longer than the duration of the shutdown. Additionally, subsequent reports may also be delayed due to backlogged work.