There has been a significant decline in the birth rate in the last few decades and it is concerning for economists and governments all over the world.

Earlier in February, the Reproductive Health Survey (RHS) found that Jamaica’s total fertility rate had plummeted significantly in 2021, and is likely to contribute to a decrease in the national population estimate.

Specifically, in comparison to the number of children born per woman between 1973 and 1974, the average birth rate was 4.5 children; in 2021, that number has plummeted to 1.9.

Jamaica’s compounding situation is but a microcosm of a global trend.

The United Nations reported that the number of births per 1,000 women was 17.2 in 2024, representing a 0.94 per cent decline from 2023. The rate was 17.464 in 2023, which reflected a 1.15 per cent decline from 2022.

The inevitable fallout points to the lowest birth rate in human history, which has since become the subject of many economic and academic studies. In a study published in The Lancet medical journal, it was forecasted that by 2050, over three-quarters of the countries in the world will fall below the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.

Jamaica is already below that mark, with the latest numbers being 1.9, already raising serious questions as to the future of the economy.

A population that is steadily growing older, with not enough people being born to replace the elderly, means that there will less people available to participate in economic activity. Regardless of output, there is a legal requirement to retire after a certain age in most countries and most sectors, meaning that younger people need to be available to fill positions, which becomes less and less possible, the fewer people are born.

There are some countries already considering raising the retirement age, to allow for more working years in the current population, and this seems to be the first wave of governmental response to the lack of replacement in the workforce.

As the workforce shrinks, there will need to be strong fiscal intervention to save economies and could also lead to major shifts in immigration policies globally, as countries will look to attract a workforce, as theirs slowly dies or retires. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) may help some sectors overcome a lack of replenishing workforce, but certain sectors will still be gravely affected.

Not only is the current state of the economy a factor for the lack of reproduction, there is also growing discord among women in the state of male-female relations that has led to the rise of childless women. The biggest and most glaring example of this is South Korea’s 4B movement. The name derives from the Korean translations of the forms of protest, which are the non-participation in sex with men, having children with men, dating men and marriage to men. (All of these actions start with B in Korean, hence the name).

This movement seemed to also have spread to China where it was called the 6B4T, also derived from the Chinese translations.

Both these countries are historically known to be rigidly patriarchal and women have now formed an alliance with each other to combat sexism and inequity in both societies. The movement is largely given credit for South Korea’s most recent decline and while it may not have a name in other countries, there seems to be more support for it in other societies outside of Asia.

The social implications of course are that there will be fewer families and fewer marriages in general, as more and more women opt out of the traditional construct. This means the solution, would not only have to be economic, but societal. That is, not only would the global economy need to trend upwards to encourage a positive outlook on the costs associated with children, but a general societal shift in values and views of women is needed as well.

The world will be different and significantly so if these trends continue and the pressure on governments to maintain their population’s growth will be made more difficult to sustain, with more people dying than being born. A multi-faceted approach to the issue would be needed if we are to sustain the human race in the long term.