Dr Nigel Clarke is generally acknowledged as a good Minister of Finance and one of the top performers of the Andrew Holness administration.

It has been announced that he will be demitting that position to take up an appointment as one of the IMF’s Deputy Managing Directors, working alongside notable economist Gita Gopinath.

Some say this comes at an inopportune time with the country recovering from Beryl, the fallout from the decision to give the public sector huge pay rises and a hole in the fiscal budget . An expenditure budget of J$1.3 trillion was tabled this year.

Some of Dr Clarke’s detractors point to his fixation on reducing debt at the expense of growing the economy. Others cite the $20 billion revenue shortfall for the 2023/2024 fiscal year as a blooper but it has to be said that there was a $14 billion shortfall in corporate income tax. Companies have been tardy in paying their taxes and it has proven problematic.

Eyebrows were raised with the announcement that the Government will be raising $45 billion through a sale of Government receivables with a portion of that being used to fund a part of the Capital Expenditure Budget.

What the IMF, multilateral agencies, and international observers, have been impressed with is Dr Clarke’s prudent fiscal management.  He acquitted himself well during the COVID period which saw the Government hamstrung for three fiscal years.

Dr Nigel Clarke has been an exemplar for small island states, reducing the public debt to GDP ratio by more than 60 percentage points to 75.5 per cent last year, the lowest in 25 years. He has set a target of taking that even lower to 60 per cent by 2028.  This would be extraordinary for Jamaica.

To put it in context and to fathom Dr Clarke’s achievement and acclaim, a decade ago, Jamaica had one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world at 140 per cent. It was practically shut out from the international capital markets. There are not many ministers of finance throughout the world who have been able to so adroitly manage a country’s debt obligations in the fashion he was able to do. The IMF was impressed.

Economist Dr Peter-John Gordon of the University of the West Indies questioned Dr Nigel Clarke’s figure work with revenues. His calculations were exposed to be specious by Dr. Clarke.

Financial commentator Ralston Hyman has noted that some of the world’s top economies have a debt-to-GDP ratio of above 100 per cent so why the fixation on reducing the debt at such a pace to the detriment of the economy?

Hyman has a point and makes it well. Dr Nigel Clarke counters that Jamaica is prone to exogenous shocks and that the management of its debt puts it in good stead with the multi-lateral agencies and the international capital markets. It makes Jamaica a safe pair of hands, receiving credit for its fiscal management from the leading rating agencies.

Dr Nigel Clarke’s appointment is a big feather in the cap for Jamaica. It is a thumbs up for its fiscal management and some see it as a testament to why this Minister of Finance should be hailed as the best Jamaica has ever had.

Now that he is on to pastures new and greener, who can adequately replace him? The person chosen should have demonstrated the ability to manage a large institution and be adept at communicating fiscal policies. It also means that the Jamaican Government should have a deep bench but does it?

Should the government cast its eyes further afield and convince someone to enter the political arena in order to take up this vacancy?

Of course, any Minister of Finance has to be an elected Member of Parliament. There is speculation that the current Minister of Education, Fayval Williams who has a background in finance would be a good fit.

Whoever is selected, should be prepared to serve in the position for at least five years provided the Jamaica Labour Party can retain power. Over the next year, there will be a general election and then possibly a five year period in office. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has to get this right, his political fortunes may depend on this. 

A worthy candidate here is Senator Aubyn Hill. He has both local and international experience of running a large financial institution and is a trained banker.  He was the first managing director of NCB when Michael Lee-Chin acquired it in 2002.  Before that, he headed the National Bank of Oman and the Burgan Bank of Kuwait. He is goal-orientated and his appointment would be generally well received. He is no raw-boned unyielding doctrinaire politico. The JLP would have to find him a safe seat in order to facilitate this move. He is already a senior Cabinet member and has done a good job with the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce, focusing on closing the trade gap, looking to create more SMEs and flying the flag for Jamaican goods and services abroad. This would be a seamless transition for the man from St Elizabeth. It must be noted that Aubyn Hill has the bearing and demeanour of a Minister of Finance. 

Keith Duncan is also a candidate to consider. He has done a fine job with EPOC and heads JMMB. He  is astute, and capable and masters his numbers. Underpinning all that, he is a very good communicator. A hurdle here is getting him to join the JLP. He is the son of one of the best operators in Jamaican politics,  the late Dr DK Duncan who was a legendary PNP stalwart. To get Keith Duncan to come on board would be a big coup for Andrew Holness and would speak to his ability to create a big tent party able to attract people of all persuasions. The next ten years for Jamaica are crucial and will decide whether it can make the leap to become an advancing developing nation that sits in the middle-income bracket or is condemned to be forever a third-world backwater of sufferers.

Senator Don Wehby has done a good job as Group CEO of Grace Kennedy and has taken it to become a US$1 billion revenue company.  He can take it to become a $2 billion revenue company by 2030  if the powers at Grace Kennedy change the rules and allow him to remain as head honcho. Grace has this mandatory retirement age of 65.  Wehby can heed the call of his country and pass the GraceKennedy torch to a worthy successor ( Steve Whittingham or Frank James?)  and for the next five years, manage Jamaica’s finances before walking into the sunset. There are not too many people who would baulk at his appointment. He is already a senator and he may relish the opportunity to turn his talents toward the national cause. He enjoys a stellar reputation and is a very good communicator. He undoubtedly possesses the bona fides. The question is would Don Wehby want to wade into the treachous crocodile-filled waters that is Jamaican politics?  He may be too urbane to hold his nose and take a dive into that sewer then again he may view the challenge as the ultimate full stop to a glorious career. 

Wehby is already a legislator and has held a Cabinet position as Minister Without Portfolio in the Ministry of Finance. He would make a good fit.

Now this may raise eyebrows and may cause some to spill their tea but having presided over monetary policy how historic would it be to have Richard Byles move over to run the Ministry of Finance? He has led two leading financial institutions namely, Pan Jam and Sagicor as well as served as the Governor of the Bank of Jamaica. He has the credibility and experience and this appointment could be his final stop in what has been the best career in Jamaica’s financial sector. Richard Byles is not given to verbosity and unsubstantiated pronouncements. The cynics may say he will protect and look out for his chums in the financial sector but that does not do justice to the man.

He may read this and have a chuckle deeming it a bridge too far. Byles has always been a fervent patriot and wants to see Jamaica progress and be a country where citizens can prosper. What better way than to be the one to mind the national coffers? Again his bespoke suits and Church’s Oxford shoes may be incongruous in the mud patches that he will have to travail in Jamaican politics. He may not want to spend his time battling for a constituency seat having to entreat voters to come on over to his side. Daryl Vaz he is not.

Richard Byles has that stature that James Baker, Henry Paulson, George Shultz and Alan Greenspan exuded. We are talking big dog, tall weeds here. His appointment as Minister of Finance would be truly epic. Some people ask for respect others don’t have to. Byles’ bipartisan stewardship is an asset and gives him great appeal across the country and the political divide. Yes, a long shot but by no means incredulous.

Now this one comes out of left field and to some may be a head scratcher – Claudette Crooks of MoneyMasters. Like Fayval Williams she has had a long career in the financial sector and could be enticed into the political arena for one purpose only -prudent fiscal management. For decades now she has acquitted herself well in the sphere of wealth creation and investments. She is well-regarded.  She has a pleasant disposition and is not one who seeks to ruffle feathers. Her acumen and professionalism could be employed for Jamaica’s betterment. She heads her own investment house and knows what it is to found and run a business. She will be no one-dimensional political apparatchik. She would bring a fresh and unique approach to the position.

She has extensive experience as both an entrepreneur and as a corporate banker. The lady From Clifton, Hanover is a dynamo who has exhibited drive and determination to get the job done. She has always demonstrated grit. She has the chops to manage the Ministry of Finance and is respected in the financial sector.