Durrant Pate/Contributor

The World Bank has a dual‑track outlook for the Caribbean with those states involved in the oil and gas sectors growing well whilst those involved in tourism growing moderately. 

In its latest Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Economic Update, titled “Reconsidering Industrial Policy,” the World Bank reports cites some Caribbean and Central American economies outperforming their Latin American counterpart in 2024, although performance continued to vary markedly between tourism‑dependent countries and commodity exporters. 

Tourism‑based economies have broadly recovered the levels of GDP that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by the strong rebound in tourist arrivals, even as growth in the services sector is expected to moderate. Guyana’s oil‑driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026, while Trinidad & Tobago, another hydrocarbon producer benefiting intermittently from gas‑related activity, but with a more mature production profile and without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana. 

Contrasting growth projections

The report, which was released this morning, notes, “Suriname, while not yet experiencing an oil‑led surge, is beginning to see growth supported by investment and expectations linked to recent offshore discoveries. By contrast, growth in the rest of the Caribbean has been moderating, as tourism‑dependent economies face softer external demand, high import and energy costs, and climate‑related vulnerabilities.”

The result is an increasingly dual‑track outlook within the subregion. This widening contrast underscores the growing divergence between resource‑rich producers and the remainder of the Caribbean. Guyana stands out within the region, having recorded exceptionally rapid and sustained GDP growth since 2020, driven by the scaling‑up of offshore oil production. 

This expansion has been accompanied by rising fiscal revenues, improved external balances, and a declining public debt‑to‑GDP ratio, although the pace of growth also underscores the importance of strengthening public investment management, building institutional capacity, and ensuring that oil wealth translates into broad‑based and inclusive development.

Region’s debt dynamics

According to the report, “public debt dynamics remain heterogeneous across the Caribbean and Central America. Several countries have reduced debt‑to‑GDP ratios through a combination of economic growth and fiscal consolidation. Relative to benchmarks before and during the pandemic, Belize, Costa Rica, Jamaica, St. Lucia, Barbados, and Suriname show substantial progress in lowering debt burdens.” 

Jamaica strengthened its fiscal governance framework in 2025 by making the Independent Fiscal Commission fully operational, building on the foundations established by the Economic Programme Oversight Committee. In Costa Rica, declining debt ratios reflect a more gradual, rules‑based consolidation anchored in the fiscal rule and expenditure controls, supported by sustained primary surpluses and improved market confidence. 

This framework has helped stabilise public finances following the pandemic‑related increase in debt and strengthen fiscal credibility. Barbados and Belize reduced debt through decisive policy choices rather than gradual adjustment alone. 

Barbados combined fiscal reform with a comprehensive debt restructuring that lowered interest costs, while Belize cut external debt through a debt‑for‑nature swap tied to marine conservation. In both cases, visible actions helped lock in credibility and support the recovery.