Sees better global economic growth than previously forecast in 2023

Durrant Pate/Contributor

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report for 2023, the World Bank has maintained its 2 per cent growth forecast for Jamaica this year.

The World Bank’s 2024 growth prospect for Jamaica is even better than January’s forecast, reflecting an improvement of 0.5% when the economy is projected to grow by 17 per cent. The projection for 2025 is for a marginal decline to 1.5 per cent

The forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean is for growth of 5.1 per cent this year, which is 0.5 per cent lower than the projection in January. The outturn for 2024 is for a 0.1 per cent downgrade to 5.6 per cent.

The region’s growth should be led by Guyana with its Gross Domestic Product expected to climb by 25.2 per cent this year and 21.2 per cent in 2025, affirming January’s forecast. Growth for the region is set at 6.7 per cent for 2025.

Global growth forecast

The World Bank sees better global economic growth than previously forecast in 2023, due to resilient U.S. consumer spending and China’s recovery from the pandemic earlier this year. 

The bank’s forecasts highlight the problems that global policymakers face, as they try to lower inflation by raising interest rates while still dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic and supply chain disruptions resulting from the war in Ukraine. 

The bank still expects slowing growth in the second half of this year and a muted expansion into next year. The Washington-based development lending institutions are warning that stubbornly high inflation and interest-rate increases are weighing on economic activity around the world, particularly in developing countries.

The bank now projects the world’s economy will grow 2.1 per cent this year, up from the 1.7 per cent pace it forecast in January. The new estimate still marks a slowdown from last year’s 3.1 per cent expansion.

“The global economy remains in a precarious state,” the multilateral lender reports in the latest issue of its semiannual report. The banknotes overlapping negative shocks from the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sharp tightening of monetary policy.