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Durrant Pate/Contributor

Jamaica has strengthened its position in the US alumina export market, more than doubling shipments from 107,000 tonnes in 2024 to 223,000 tonnes in 2025, up 108.4 per cent. 

The increase reflects higher utilisation at the Jamalco refinery in Clarendon, which has a nameplate capacity of 1.4 million tonnes and, since May 2023, has been 55 per cent owned by Century Aluminum, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, with the remaining equity of 45 per cent owned by the Government of Jamaica through Clarendon Alumina Production (CAP).

Data from the integrated virtual bauxite/alumina ecosystem, ALCircle shows Jamaican alumina exports rising to 102,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, up from 29,440 tonnes a year earlier, following earlier gains in 2024. Utilisation improved from around 30 per cent to 39 per cent, supported by operational adjustments and stronger US demand. 

The shift was most visible in the first quarter of 2025, when exports jumped to 66,000 tonnes, up 238 per cent year on year. Recovery from Hurricane Beryl, which disrupted Kingston port operations in July 2024, also played a role, with repairs completed by the fourth quarter, thereby enabling stockpiling and a stronger start to 2025. 

Early gains from the US$70.5 million Project Restore further improved mining access, digester flow and feedstock consistency. As Jamaica has doubled its exports of Alumina to America, so has “Uncle Sam” expanded its imports of the raw material.

US alumina imports surged to 1.77 million tonnes in 2025, up 32 per cent from 1.34 million tonnes in 2024, reversing a marginal one per cent dip from 1.36 million tonnes in 2023. 

Brazil dominates US alumina supply

Brazil continues to dominate US alumina supply with shipments rising from 969,000 tonnes in 2024 to 1.23 million tonnes in 2025, a 26.9 per cent increase. A major driver has been the expansion of the Alumar refinery, where a US$3.1 billion upgrade doubled capacity to 3.5 million tonnes per year, reaching full ramp-up by mid-2025. 

Completed in phases between 2020 and 2025, the project has created a clear export surplus beyond Brazil’s roughly 1 million tonne domestic aluminium demand. “Logistics reinforce this advantage. Cargoes from São Luís and Pecém reach the US Gulf Coast in 10–15 days at freight costs of US$15–20 per tonne, compared with more than 30 days and US$40–60 per tonne from Australia, effectively halving landed costs,” ALCircle is reporting.

Germany rises, China redirects, Australia retreats

ALCircle emphasises that beyond Brazil and Jamaica, the supply chain shows the global market in transition, with Germany witnessing the sharpest rise, with exports jumping from 17,000 tonnes in 2024 to 95,800 tonnes in 2025, reflecting a massive 463.5 per cent increase. Of this, around 10,028 tonnes was smelter-grade alumina.

Germany’s role is less about production and more about logistics, functioning as a trading and re-export hub, with over US$900 million worth of alumina shipments routed through it. Canada, by contrast, has remained steady. 

Imports edged up slightly from 72,900 to 74,600 tonnes, a modest 2.3 per cent increase, suggesting a stable but limited role in US supply, while China’s position has expanded more noticeably with shipments rising from 53,500 tonnes to 61,900 tonnes, up 15.7 per cent. 

This shift, the bauxite and alumina ecosystem platform says, is closely tied to domestic policy, particularly the 45 million tonne cap on primary aluminium production, which has constrained local alumina demand. As a result, excess material has increasingly been pushed into export markets. 

Shipments rose 59.3 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2025 to around 1.75 million tonnes, with momentum expected to carry through the rest of the year as producers take advantage of competitive global pricing. Australia, however, has moved in the opposite direction with exports to the US falling sharply by 50.2 per cent, dropping from 63,300 tonnes in 2024 to 31,500 tonnes in 2025. 

The decline reflects a difficult production cycle, including a 2.2 million tonnes curtailment at the Kwinana refinery in June 2024, disruptions at Rio Tinto’s Gladstone operations and environmental approval challenges at South32. Export volumes fell by 7.3 per cent, even as export values climbed from US$8.5 billion to US$11.5 billion with American tariffs adding another layer of pressure on trade flows.