Jamaica only CARICOM country to decline in 2026 Word Bank reports
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Dual‑track outlook for the Caribbean
Durrant Pate/Contributor
The World Bank is seeing Jamaica as the only CARICOM country projected to decline in 2026, with Guyana and Suriname leading the way because of their oil boom.
The World Bank’s latest Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Economic Update, titled “Reconsidering Industrial Policy,” which was released today in Kingston, shows Jamaica set to rebound in 2027 with growth projected at 3.2 with a minus one per cent contraction projected for this year.
Guyana leads the way with projected growth for 2026 of 16.3% and 4.0% for Suriname. In terms of growth for 2027, these two CARICOM states are leading the way with projected growth of 23.5% for Guyana and 4.5% for Guyana.
World Bank Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, William Maloney, cited details in the report showing that growth should feature prominently over the two-year period 2026 and 2027 for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Barbados, all from the Eastern Caribbean.
| Country | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | 2026f | 2027f |
| Bahamas The | 10.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Barbados | 15.9 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Belize | 9.3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Dominica | 10.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Grenada | 7.3 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Guyana | 63.3 | 33.8 | 43.8 | 15.4 | 16.3 | 23.5 |
| Haiti | -1.7 | -1.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Jamaica | 6.4 | 2.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 3.2 |
| Saint Lucia | 20.6 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Suriname | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
Source: World Bank staff calculations.
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