Since it was resoundingly beaten in the general election of 2020, the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) has gained traction under Mark Golding.

With just 14 seats in Parliament, many surmised that the PNP may be heading to a generation in exile, the glory days of PJ Patterson truly behind them.

When Mark Golding defeated Lisa Hanna in the leadership contest, some questioned whether he could pull the party out of the doldrums and return it to electability. There were those who questioned his favourability and saw it as a deterrent.

Almost five years on, he has made the PNP a force again, he has slowly but surely gained yardage. 

The Local Government election of February 2024 was a testament to progress made and a wake-up call for the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

The PNP was not a moribund party, likely to get another pasting at the general election in 2025. 

For most of this year, the Don Anderson poll (still the most credible pollster) has the PNP ahead, albeit with a slender lead.

Despite these encouraging factors, the PNP today has not fought a great campaign that gives them a chance to take back the reins of power.

With blood in its nostrils, one would have thought the PNP would go for the jugular, take the fight to the JLP.

Rather than focusing on how it will transform Jamaica for the better, spur economic growth and make life better for the citizenry, it is preoccupied with rampant corruption in the JLP Government (a decent hill to die on, make no mistake) and the enrichment of Prime Minister Andrew Holness.

Can this be a winning strategy? Will Jamaicans buy this, given that corruption is like the ether, omnipresent? There is the way things ought to be and then the way things are.

The PNP has to fight a campaign which sees it get total buy-in from Jamaicans. It must come with a compelling vision that galvanises all strata of society and makes people want to come out and vote.  

To prise the belt from the champion, you have to knock him out, not look to win on points or a technicality.

It was an error to proclaim that the PNP does not want to reveal its plans for the country for fear that the JLP would co-opt them. That should have been seared into the public consciousness a year ago.

Is one absolutely clear on the PNP’s position on national security and law and order? Is one clear on its position on economic growth and measures to be pursued in order that the standard of living can rise?

Can the PNP extract more value out of the agricultural sector?

What are its plans for education, particularly at the tertiary level?

How will it improve the country’s infrastructure and roadways?

What will be done to improve the healthcare system? 

It’s all too opaque.

The JLP came out with a book listing its achievements. The PNP needs to counter with a book listing what it intends to do to make Jamaica a better country to live in. It should be a working document.

The PNP cannot hope to win the upcoming general election by default. Prime Minister Andrew Holness’ Integrity Report woes will not prove to be the silver bullet in this election campaign.

The PNP should have crafted a strategy which has never been seen before in Jamaican electioneering. As it presently stands, it’s the same old, same old.

It has to wrap its head around how it will oust a two-term incumbent. Can it present to the people of Jamaica a new government with fresh and workable ideas that will benefit the country?

Speaking to many young people about them voting, many say, “Why should I? It’s a waste of time.”

That mindset and response are telling. It tells you the PNP has failed to energise young people. It tells you it has failed to excite Gen Z, despite the TikTok videos and uploads on YouTube, now the preferred means of communication by young people these days.

The last general election saw a lowly 37 per cent turnout. This time around it is doubtful whether it will climb much above that.

Party general-secretary Dr Dayton Campbell has said that the PNP will win 38 seats. That may be a bridge too far and a long way from 14 seats. That would spell an overwhelming rejection of the JLP by the people of Jamaica. Now, in the opening weeks of August, one doesn’t get that feeling on the ground. It is likely to be one hell of a dog fight.

Was 2020 an aberration, a one-off that threw the PNP off kilter? Was the party’s infighting a distraction? With no COVID-19 pandemic to contend with and its formidable base expected to show up, can the PNP get over the line?

It will need the help of the younger people. It has to speak to a younger generation from a new century. What can it do for them? How can it reach them? How can the PNP convince them that it has the wherewithal and the answers?

The PNP has not scored a significant general election victory since the popular  Portia Simpson Miller left the political arena. Her ability to connect with the populace, to be familiar with its ways and sensibilities, was a big asset. How the PNP could do with her now! The top tier of the PNP is now of the elite—educated, intellectual, urbane and unapproachable.

Andrew Holness is a very good retail politician. He is a political athlete who cannot be discounted. He has proven to be more formidable than both Edward Seaga and Bruce Golding. It would be a mistake to dismiss his popularity and the good faith he enjoys with Jamaicans.

The issue surrounding his statutory declarations and his financial worth should have been cleared up before the general election- now it hovers above his neck like Damocles’ sword. The PNP has rightfully seized upon it and is asking the question: Does he have the moral authority to lead? If he can enrich himself in this way, why can’t you?

Will this prove to be the JLP’s Achilles’ heel? It shouldn’t even have been an issue. The prime minister has to be seen to operate on a higher level of transparency than most, and now this is an opening that the PNP is exploiting. Holness is banking on this not paying off for the Comrades, that his popularity and the JLP’s accomplishments will secure the win.

It may behove the PNP to rely more heavily on its younger candidates during this campaign. Gabriela Morris, Dr Andre Haughton, Christopher Brown, Zuleika Jess, Dr Alfred Dawes and Stacey Knight are bright and talented politicians. It would be refreshing to see some of them in parliament.

They have to be part of the vanguard of this campaign. It is easy to place faith in the old warhorses who have seen battle before, but are they able to adapt? Can they present a refreshed party with new ideas for Jamaicans coming of age? Does the old playbook still work? 

The PNP should KNOW how the JLP will array its battalions. It will rely heavily on the popularity of its leader, and its banner men’s sigel will be their accomplishments over close to a decade. No new taxes, a significant fall in crime, reduction in national debt, infrastructure projects, low inflation, low unemployment, and macroeconomic stability.

Can the PNP outflank the JLP? Can it switch up and fight southpaw and catch the opponent off guard?

It only has weeks now for its campaign to catch fire. There is much work to be done.