The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has activated a flash flood warning for eastern and southcentral parishes of the island as a tropical wave continues to induce heavy rains on Thursday (August 26).

The Met Service, in a 5:00 am bulletin, said that the flash flood warning takes immediate effect and would last until 5:00 pm today.

Parishes under the warning include low-lying and flood-prone areas of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester.

Additionally, a flash flood watch has been imposed on Westmoreland, Hanover, St James, Trelawny, St Ann and St Elizabeth.

In its forecast, the Met Service said Jamaicans should brace for “mostly cloudy conditions with periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times to continue to affect most parishes, with the greatest intensity over eastern and central parishes throughout
today into Friday.”

“Strong gusty winds are also likely in the vicinity of thunderstorms along coastal areas of southern parishes. Flash flooding is therefore likely over low-lying and flood-prone areas of these parishes,” the Met Service advised further.

According to the government weather agency, observational data indicates moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms have been affecting sections of eastern and central parishes throughout Wednesday night.

As at 7:56 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), the massive low-pressure system was located some 241 kilometres south-southwest of Jamaica.

The US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that a tropical depression or storm could form later today into Friday as environmental conditions are very favourable.

The NHC places its development chances at a ‘high’ 90 per cent over the next two to five days.

The main problem faced by weather sleuths is largely guesswork, which the NHC indicated stems from the system’s projected path and likely strength into next week.

“The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern US Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and Monday. However, uncertainty in the system’s exact track and intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form,” the NHC said.

In the meantime, there will be no refuge from heavy rains anywhere across Jamaica today as widespread showers and thunderstorms blanket the island. The maximum temperature expected for major cities Kingston and Montego Bay is 29 and 31 degrees Celcius respectively.

Breakdown of towns and cities forecast: 

The Jamaica Met Service is reminding fisherfolk and marine interests that a small craft warning remains in effect for offshore areas of the north and south coast as well as inshore areas of the sorth coast due to strong winds and rough seas.

Already, one major thoroughfare in the Corporate Area, the eastbound section of Marcus Garvey Drive, has been declared impassable by the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF). Motorists are being urged to use alternative routes where possible.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, the NHC is also actively monitoring two other weather disturbances with high formation chances over the next five days.

One potential system over the central Atlantic, about 600 miles east of Bermuda, continues to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly eastward at 5 to 10 miles/hour,” the NHC advised, adding its development chances stand at a ‘medium’ 40 per cent and a ‘high’ 70 per cent respectively over the next two to five days.

The other disturbance, a tropical wave roughly 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Island, is also disorganised at this time, however, conditions are ripe for further intensification.

“Environmental conditions appear a little more conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 miles/hour,” the Miami-headquartered hurricane watchdog noted.

Formation chances for this system were placed at a ‘meduim’ 40 per cent and 50 per cent respectively over the next two to five days.

• See related article: NHC alerts Caribbean Basin to three weather disturbances as hurricane season nears peak